{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51f5eaf3-b0dd-4331-9ba9-f0843ef82c01", "symbol": "MNIF", "name": "Menif - Financial Services Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-04", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.924, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.318, "architecture_energy": 24.739, "architecture_maturity": 29.638, "architecture_confidence": 61.397, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.84, "rotation_up": 25.8, "upward_expansion": 16.12, "deceleration": 58.56, "rotation_down": 41.33, "downward_expansion": 66.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 231333.012687, 230639.324398, 237103.543413, 243588.038905 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 244000.0, "trend_reference": 249852.4063, "distance_from_trend": -0.023423, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 167306.556595, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.458401, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.003425, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.093738, "excess_performance": -0.072254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023423, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009816, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.458401, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097426, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050034, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073275, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093738, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.300789, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 161500, "relative_activity": 0.540503, "balance": 2.300789, "dry_up": 0.776032, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088047, "annualized_volatility": 0.372978, "from_high_reference": -0.235626, "from_low_reference": 0.439805 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 249852.4063, "fair_value_reference": 167306.556595, "structural_low": 198169.6745, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.001123, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009552, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.224639, "worst_return": -0.07107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.074874, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.084743, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.3347, "worst_return": -0.104626, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.04267, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.040696, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.264192, "worst_return": -0.101383, "sufficient": 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"relative_strength": -11.375485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.898579, "energy": 54.827324, "activity_lines": [ 224805.597327, 228842.098725, 239511.758778, 245416.546153 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 227900.0, "volume": 166112, "typical_volume": 301512.55, "trend": 249911.317383, "fair_value": 166269.759683, "relative_strength": -9.556225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.582298, "energy": 45.720165, "activity_lines": [ 225103.844393, 228257.984289, 237466.629813, 243969.41422 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 244000.0, "volume": 161500, "typical_volume": 298795.9, "trend": 249852.4063, "fair_value": 167306.556595, "relative_strength": -5.003425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.318217, "energy": 24.739124, "activity_lines": [ 231333.012687, 230639.324398, 237103.543413, 243588.038905 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }