{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51f7afe9-18d3-4a01-8823-5e4ea22b9b72", "symbol": "TRIS3", "name": "Trisul S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.193, "architecture_energy": 56.415, "architecture_maturity": 84.046, "architecture_confidence": 86.549, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.7, "rotation_up": 28.75, "upward_expansion": 9.82, "deceleration": 60.46, "rotation_down": 48.69, "downward_expansion": 80.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.173333, 4.204545, 4.343952, 4.733957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.12, "trend_reference": 5.319333, "distance_from_trend": -0.225467, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.092755, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006657, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.000474, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.416431, "excess_performance": -0.359382, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.225467, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100626, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006657, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149287, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.250005, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015223, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.416431, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.204626, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1315300, "relative_activity": 0.838339, "balance": 1.204626, "dry_up": 1.017059, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075616, "annualized_volatility": 0.401844, "from_high_reference": -0.460733, "from_low_reference": 0.040404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.319333, "fair_value_reference": 4.092755, "structural_low": 3.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.00765, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017138, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.298343, "worst_return": -0.182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.062147, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.02034, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.745595, "worst_return": -0.254032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.047911, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.01052, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.637112, "worst_return": -0.409574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023697, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077869, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.324482, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070149, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022971, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.999547, "energy": 53.455488, "activity_lines": [ 4.33, 4.273273, 4.61819, 5.078802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.08, "volume": 1664900, "typical_volume": 1793370.0, "trend": 5.512726, "fair_value": 4.089895, "relative_strength": -27.260568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.285169, "energy": 53.838867, "activity_lines": [ 4.273333, 4.235818, 4.523333, 4.982627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.11, "volume": 2180200, "typical_volume": 1756490.0, "trend": 5.447333, "fair_value": 4.092115, "relative_strength": -26.529837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.948788, "energy": 53.735091, "activity_lines": [ 4.22, 4.214364, 4.447333, 4.892129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.26, "volume": 1222400, "typical_volume": 1676350.0, "trend": 5.384333, "fair_value": 4.093991, "relative_strength": -25.156796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.846115, "energy": 53.145893, "activity_lines": [ 4.216667, 4.221273, 4.398333, 4.815527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.12, "volume": 1315300, "typical_volume": 1568935.0, "trend": 5.319333, "fair_value": 4.092755, "relative_strength": -25.000474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.192576, "energy": 56.415363, "activity_lines": [ 4.173333, 4.204545, 4.343952, 4.733957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }