{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5202d698-f66f-4268-9668-48a7ddf90dd0", "symbol": "TTWO", "name": "Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.849, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.743, "architecture_energy": 27.804, "architecture_maturity": 47.62, "architecture_confidence": 71.295, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.18, "rotation_up": 37.41, "upward_expansion": 65.14, "deceleration": 84.55, "rotation_down": 24.89, "downward_expansion": 15.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 207.773336, 208.260001, 202.007524, 195.841097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 208.800003, "trend_reference": 190.068333, "distance_from_trend": 0.098552, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 172.402372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21112, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.996747, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.266222, "excess_performance": 0.091975, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098552, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008451, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21112, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074682, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149967, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048999, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.266222, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.537815, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 447, "relative_activity": 5.091116, "balance": 5.537815, "dry_up": 3.442483, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06985, "annualized_volatility": 0.381143, "from_high_reference": -0.095321, "from_low_reference": 0.295929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 190.068333, "fair_value_reference": 172.402372, "structural_low": 161.119995, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.005636, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.004562, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.18686, "worst_return": -0.086219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.019723, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.056491, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.20375, "worst_return": -0.08013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035323, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.057212, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.28408, "worst_return": -0.26241, 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"energy": 63.521527, "activity_lines": [ 208.379998, 202.22909, 193.233618, 190.095505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 214.0, "volume": 63, "typical_volume": 36.65, "trend": 190.958333, "fair_value": 170.48609, "relative_strength": -12.488444, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.975749, "energy": 75.68163, "activity_lines": [ 212.359999, 205.107272, 195.832476, 191.599914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 208.0, "volume": 12, "typical_volume": 35.2, "trend": 190.803333, "fair_value": 170.949167, "relative_strength": -12.827477, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.353224, "energy": 72.142828, "activity_lines": [ 212.533332, 206.30909, 197.650666, 192.699376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 203.800003, "volume": 94, "typical_volume": 35.5, "trend": 190.558333, "fair_value": 171.376346, "relative_strength": -15.335977, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.212446, "energy": 58.037783, "activity_lines": [ 209.626667, 206.4, 198.933619, 193.537871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 207.800003, "volume": 656, "typical_volume": 65.55, "trend": 190.341667, "fair_value": 171.872115, "relative_strength": -13.212645, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.410039, "energy": 36.22833, "activity_lines": [ 208.546668, 207.341819, 200.489048, 194.650237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 208.800003, "volume": 447, "typical_volume": 87.8, "trend": 190.068333, "fair_value": 172.402372, "relative_strength": -14.996747, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.742663, "energy": 27.803887, "activity_lines": [ 207.773336, 208.260001, 202.007524, 195.841097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }