{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52031ff2-f40b-4b04-8bc4-f31416b753a9", "symbol": "MULT3", "name": "Multiplan Empreendimentos Imobili\u00e1rios S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.607, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.57, "architecture_energy": 58.688, "architecture_maturity": 15.297, "architecture_confidence": 88.538, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.78, "rotation_up": 15.99, "upward_expansion": 11.48, "deceleration": 40.9, "rotation_down": 62.2, "downward_expansion": 84.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.196001, 28.540104, 29.169777, 29.828064 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.790001, "trend_reference": 30.57934, "distance_from_trend": -0.091216, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.178272, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.103729, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.350143, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.159641, "excess_performance": -0.102593, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091216, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00634, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.103729, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167475, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083501, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030742, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.159641, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.037138, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19867300, "relative_activity": 1.562803, "balance": 1.037138, "dry_up": 1.403288, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054778, "annualized_volatility": 0.304267, "from_high_reference": -0.219934, "from_low_reference": 0.109027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.57934, "fair_value_reference": 25.178272, "structural_low": 27.540001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.048913, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.012112, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.242497, "worst_return": -0.171273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.064956, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.039138, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.465786, "worst_return": -0.009434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.085841, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.051096, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.30437, "worst_return": 0.015443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 13559445.0, "trend": 30.465259, "fair_value": 25.068272, "relative_strength": -4.123546, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.665274, "energy": 25.303869, "activity_lines": [ 29.424207, 29.152117, 30.002008, 30.450753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.530001, "volume": 15364200, "typical_volume": 13165090.0, "trend": 30.520284, "fair_value": 25.100618, "relative_strength": -7.339859, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.24881, "energy": 24.11104, "activity_lines": [ 29.256293, 29.017076, 29.799756, 30.325898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.040001, "volume": 12851400, "typical_volume": 12442890.0, "trend": 30.55571, "fair_value": 25.128456, "relative_strength": -8.879925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.673768, "energy": 32.059229, "activity_lines": [ 28.900578, 28.846767, 29.581038, 30.16588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.13, "volume": 23274900, "typical_volume": 12465110.0, "trend": 30.600436, "fair_value": 25.151866, "relative_strength": -10.326299, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.403831, "energy": 41.216998, "activity_lines": [ 28.555334, 28.713602, 29.387999, 30.009382 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.790001, "volume": 19867300, "typical_volume": 12712610.0, "trend": 30.57934, "fair_value": 25.178272, "relative_strength": -8.350143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.569904, "energy": 58.68805, "activity_lines": [ 28.196001, 28.540104, 29.169777, 29.828064 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }