{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5204989b-59d5-40cf-b66f-b0193420dc97", "symbol": "002199", "name": "Zhejiang East Crystal Electronic Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.362, "architecture_energy": 28.538, "architecture_maturity": 60.605, "architecture_confidence": 71.566, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.44, "rotation_up": 37.41, "upward_expansion": 67.15, "deceleration": 73.59, "rotation_down": 27.23, "downward_expansion": 9.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.828, 12.626364, 12.519476, 11.703075 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.75, "trend_reference": 10.76, "distance_from_trend": 0.277881, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.350705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.646568, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 28.603225, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.578645, "excess_performance": 0.571245, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.277881, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128948, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.646568, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129713, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.286032, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.203863, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.578645, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.367593, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104629321, "relative_activity": 3.729086, "balance": 3.367593, "dry_up": 2.211013, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14965, "annualized_volatility": 0.579384, "from_high_reference": -0.140625, "from_low_reference": 0.978417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.76, "fair_value_reference": 8.350705, "structural_low": 6.95, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.040693, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.11194, "worst_return": -0.22973, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.125133, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.146683, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.087282, "worst_return": -0.265734, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.106459, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.072293, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132867, "worst_return": -0.224638, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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10.81, "volume": 10692402, "typical_volume": 18049173.25, "trend": 10.269333, "fair_value": 8.283205, "relative_strength": 6.465064, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.630986, "energy": 21.290479, "activity_lines": [ 11.868667, 12.507636, 11.993429, 11.189183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.8, "volume": 22951485, "typical_volume": 18460589.95, "trend": 10.400667, "fair_value": 8.300962, "relative_strength": 15.715078, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.812711, "energy": 19.389357, "activity_lines": [ 11.742, 12.291091, 12.067952, 11.287935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.67, "volume": 109869879, "typical_volume": 23477903.9, "trend": 10.584667, "fair_value": 8.316731, "relative_strength": 35.23272, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.796315, "energy": 20.897855, "activity_lines": [ 12.320667, 12.452364, 12.303619, 11.49886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.75, "volume": 104629321, "typical_volume": 28057629.85, "trend": 10.76, "fair_value": 8.350705, "relative_strength": 28.603225, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.362237, "energy": 28.537866, "activity_lines": [ 12.828, 12.626364, 12.519476, 11.703075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }