{ "ticker": { "uuid": "520498bb-02d1-4aed-9a54-f19a88e734f4", "symbol": "IGDA", "name": "Invesco Markets II plc - Invesco Dow Jones Islamic Global Developed Markets UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.972, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.797, "architecture_energy": 38.797, "architecture_maturity": 67.495, "architecture_confidence": 79.713, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.72, "rotation_up": 40.39, "upward_expansion": 62.33, "deceleration": 85.39, "rotation_down": 27.58, "downward_expansion": 21.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.027666, 39.035, 38.823548, 37.998914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.044998, "trend_reference": 37.038167, "distance_from_trend": 0.081182, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.021891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.33386, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.659833, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.136673, "excess_performance": 0.05379, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081182, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044702, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.33386, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01423, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016598, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102134, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.136673, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.242398, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23, "relative_activity": 0.001657, "balance": 0.242398, "dry_up": 0.520943, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022302, "annualized_volatility": 0.164614, "from_high_reference": -0.007559, "from_low_reference": 0.27127 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.038167, "fair_value_reference": 30.021891, "structural_low": 32.509998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018333, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.014768, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.105902, "worst_return": -0.029109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.081203, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.05906, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.187987, "worst_return": 0.041002, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.144304, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.08266, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.168218, "worst_return": 0.12039, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.186691, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.126581, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.272163, "worst_return": 0.101219, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042232, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014776, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060185, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.051828, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027352, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076274, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.140169, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038983, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.087368, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00719, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058673, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002032, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037532, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046381, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.405001, "volume": 20238, "typical_volume": 7651.45, "trend": 21.785067, "fair_value": 20.915905, "relative_strength": 10.221526, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.637017, "energy": 40.856075, 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59.620974, "activity_lines": [ 39.224, 39.139273, 37.797191, 37.049904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 39.435001, "volume": 230, "typical_volume": 13423.8, "trend": 36.354, "fair_value": 29.526603, "relative_strength": 1.216357, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.467135, "energy": 53.127879, "activity_lines": [ 39.227333, 39.256273, 38.052334, 37.258775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.330002, "volume": 1069, "typical_volume": 13402.3, "trend": 36.509834, "fair_value": 29.62718, "relative_strength": 2.170488, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.048119, "energy": 53.68652, "activity_lines": [ 39.240667, 39.309728, 38.278167, 37.450775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.424999, "volume": 3184, "typical_volume": 13450.9, "trend": 36.642834, "fair_value": 29.722051, "relative_strength": -0.989852, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.489574, "energy": 43.249089, "activity_lines": [ 38.985667, 39.156909, 38.399619, 37.574334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.27, "volume": 12185, "typical_volume": 13969.75, "trend": 36.759, "fair_value": 29.814776, "relative_strength": -1.290959, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.519471, "energy": 35.92857, "activity_lines": [ 38.706667, 38.979909, 38.493429, 37.679312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.549999, "volume": 13534, "typical_volume": 14509.65, "trend": 36.882167, "fair_value": 29.91266, "relative_strength": -0.711948, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.305147, "energy": 25.220361, "activity_lines": [ 38.613333, 38.865636, 38.598334, 37.79486 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.044998, "volume": 23, "typical_volume": 13881.55, "trend": 37.038167, "fair_value": 30.021891, "relative_strength": 1.659833, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.797164, "energy": 38.79703, "activity_lines": [ 39.027666, 39.035, 38.823548, 37.998914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }