{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5207d104-1cb8-47be-8390-06ad00ce58d1", "symbol": "PSQ", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST SHORT QQQ POST REV SPLIT", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.627, "architecture_energy": 25.65, "architecture_maturity": 88.76, "architecture_confidence": 77.402, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.31, "rotation_up": 28.1, "upward_expansion": 19.81, "deceleration": 46.83, "rotation_down": 29.4, "downward_expansion": 58.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.297333, 26.134695, 26.275946, 27.185276 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 25.53, "trend_reference": 28.272493, "distance_from_trend": -0.097002, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.630183, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.283473, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.483757, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.160263, "excess_performance": -0.285888, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097002, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04466, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.283473, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020369, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224838, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035201, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160263, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.643373, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44332461, "relative_activity": 1.020809, "balance": 0.643373, "dry_up": 1.044686, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046673, "annualized_volatility": 0.214726, "from_high_reference": -0.237225, "from_low_reference": 0.031846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.272493, "fair_value_reference": 35.630183, "structural_low": 24.742061, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.0113, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.021088, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.123389, "worst_return": -0.079339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.031704, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.059331, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.097953, "worst_return": -0.160666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.082628, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.192234, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.206714, "worst_return": -0.155709, 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25.817138, 26.618285, 27.583337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.99, "volume": 50198866, "typical_volume": 45014973.95, "trend": 28.51451, "fair_value": 35.88234, "relative_strength": -15.558947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.460037, "energy": 29.03846, "activity_lines": [ 26.356, 26.038666, 26.535748, 27.479419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.83, "volume": 50861494, "typical_volume": 44246396.2, "trend": 28.404719, "fair_value": 35.762912, "relative_strength": -16.324293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.316719, "energy": 21.962835, "activity_lines": [ 26.566667, 26.214381, 26.457019, 27.370741 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.53, "volume": 44332461, "typical_volume": 43428770.85, "trend": 28.272493, "fair_value": 35.630183, "relative_strength": -22.483757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.627384, "energy": 25.649988, "activity_lines": [ 26.297333, 26.134695, 26.275946, 27.185276 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }