{ "ticker": { "uuid": "520b0226-d686-47e8-89dd-7ea72921f97a", "symbol": "DWLD", "name": "DAVIS SELECT WORLDWIDE ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.955, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.217, "architecture_energy": 57.004, "architecture_maturity": 5.575, "architecture_confidence": 75.491, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.93, "rotation_up": 61.89, "upward_expansion": 84.88, "deceleration": 46.87, "rotation_down": 14.44, "downward_expansion": 11.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.849107, 47.406242, 47.157659, 46.729861 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 48.48, "trend_reference": 46.405987, "distance_from_trend": 0.044693, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.561036, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.290699, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.359308, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.032148, "excess_performance": -0.093477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044693, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010624, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.290699, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045251, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026128, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.032148, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.927407, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56671, "relative_activity": 0.608412, "balance": 0.927407, "dry_up": 0.819756, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028442, "annualized_volatility": 0.144625, "from_high_reference": -0.02021, "from_low_reference": 0.178892 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.405987, "fair_value_reference": 37.561036, "structural_low": 42.44, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.009335, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.006395, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.051078, "worst_return": -0.086494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.008167, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.022997, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.132019, "worst_return": -0.048125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041708, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.005664, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.194792, "worst_return": -0.040453, 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16.730975, "activity_lines": [ 46.60048, 46.859822, 46.456327, 46.313488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.4746, "volume": 143758, "typical_volume": 108935.7, "trend": 46.328211, "fair_value": 37.072121, "relative_strength": -5.334246, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.537038, "energy": 19.115918, "activity_lines": [ 46.861147, 46.942684, 46.593042, 46.390561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.0439, "volume": 98817, "typical_volume": 110100.3, "trend": 46.348634, "fair_value": 37.193884, "relative_strength": -4.636015, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.273301, "energy": 20.880807, "activity_lines": [ 46.941147, 46.935425, 46.686003, 46.436734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.7114, "volume": 102876, "typical_volume": 108672.55, "trend": 46.335653, "fair_value": 37.304479, "relative_strength": -4.670195, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.943582, "energy": 23.696578, "activity_lines": [ 46.91832, 46.884915, 46.745421, 46.460138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.41, "volume": 47063, "typical_volume": 106637.6, "trend": 46.373653, "fair_value": 37.430725, "relative_strength": -2.258276, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.807765, "energy": 48.677035, "activity_lines": [ 47.454853, 47.153033, 46.958413, 46.593967 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.48, "volume": 56671, "typical_volume": 93145.75, "trend": 46.405987, "fair_value": 37.561036, "relative_strength": -5.359308, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.216756, "energy": 57.004471, "activity_lines": [ 47.849107, 47.406242, 47.157659, 46.729861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }