{ "ticker": { "uuid": "520b8088-d8f9-4d7c-89e4-3f840b2656d1", "symbol": "PFL", "name": "Invesco Canadian Government Floating Rate Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.159, "architecture_energy": 66.71, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.25, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.96, "rotation_up": 74.12, "upward_expansion": 90.09, "deceleration": 44.52, "rotation_down": 14.91, "downward_expansion": 12.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.465076, 19.452933, 19.437506, 19.420958 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 19.48, "trend_reference": 19.3938, "distance_from_trend": 0.004445, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.692043, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042155, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.460424, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.008042, "excess_performance": -0.112379, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004445, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003569, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042155, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004961, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104604, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001212, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008042, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.604869, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11700, "relative_activity": 0.224202, "balance": 6.604869, "dry_up": 1.128198, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001604, "annualized_volatility": 0.006434, "from_high_reference": -0.001026, "from_low_reference": 0.022213 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.3938, "fair_value_reference": 18.692043, "structural_low": 19.263932, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 54, "median_return": 0.002882, "positive_rate": 0.962963, "directional_follow_through": 0.962963, "median_excess_return": -0.014274, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.005351, "worst_return": -0.000975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.009305, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.022539, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.013142, "worst_return": 0.004012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.018798, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034232, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.024875, "worst_return": 0.010787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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19.426676, 19.413631, 19.393807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.44104, "volume": 24000, "typical_volume": 65115.0, "trend": 19.368013, "fair_value": 18.643248, "relative_strength": -9.636767, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.998868, "energy": 48.506388, "activity_lines": [ 19.434582, 19.430669, 19.417728, 19.398944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.451021, "volume": 49100, "typical_volume": 61955.0, "trend": 19.374604, "fair_value": 18.65562, "relative_strength": -9.067728, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.129032, "energy": 45.409223, "activity_lines": [ 19.440507, 19.435407, 19.422269, 19.404299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.451021, "volume": 52700, "typical_volume": 62195.0, "trend": 19.380866, "fair_value": 18.667963, "relative_strength": -8.925543, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.847623, "energy": 48.174105, "activity_lines": [ 19.444434, 19.439256, 19.426344, 19.409229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.469999, "volume": 122000, "typical_volume": 54315.0, "trend": 19.387331, "fair_value": 18.679914, "relative_strength": -8.01972, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.139233, "energy": 55.04893, "activity_lines": [ 19.455018, 19.445667, 19.431714, 19.41498 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.48, "volume": 11700, "typical_volume": 52185.0, "trend": 19.3938, "fair_value": 18.692043, "relative_strength": -10.460424, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.159378, "energy": 66.7096, "activity_lines": [ 19.465076, 19.452933, 19.437506, 19.420958 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }