{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52197f80-82b6-49e1-9b74-cb0a5f952809", "symbol": "2924", "name": "Cayman Island Grand Galactica Corp Limited", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.146, "architecture_energy": 42.88, "architecture_maturity": 99.059, "architecture_confidence": 95.233, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.76, "rotation_up": 16.82, "upward_expansion": 7.2, "deceleration": 42.79, "rotation_down": 54.98, "downward_expansion": 80.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.276667, 17.667273, 17.961905, 18.275807 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.549999, "trend_reference": 18.663334, "distance_from_trend": -0.113235, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.459295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.374511, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -47.001238, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.138021, "excess_performance": -0.579393, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113235, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091219, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.374511, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013509, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.470012, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083242, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138021, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.648184, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17000, "relative_activity": 0.877693, "balance": 0.648184, "dry_up": 1.071302, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108994, "annualized_volatility": 0.593899, "from_high_reference": -0.457377, "from_low_reference": 0.122034 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.663334, "fair_value_reference": 26.459295, "structural_low": 14.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.009653, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.37931, "median_excess_return": -0.012238, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 1.190752, "worst_return": -0.212048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.000616, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.099302, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.23658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019349, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.146107, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.724138, "worst_return": -0.321555, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.700001, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 17175.2, "trend": 19.151667, "fair_value": 26.750962, "relative_strength": -44.2833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.471598, "energy": 15.95453, "activity_lines": [ 18.146667, 17.927273, 18.385, 18.657097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.450001, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 17025.15, "trend": 19.04, "fair_value": 26.683333, "relative_strength": -42.051954, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.532137, "energy": 13.976331, "activity_lines": [ 18.273334, 18.081819, 18.362619, 18.611828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.0, "volume": 14000, "typical_volume": 17125.15, "trend": 18.89, "fair_value": 26.616346, "relative_strength": -41.503071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.475008, "energy": 15.461913, "activity_lines": [ 18.176667, 18.122728, 18.3, 18.544731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.950001, "volume": 47000, "typical_volume": 18618.95, "trend": 18.778334, "fair_value": 26.539103, "relative_strength": -45.072914, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.063141, "energy": 26.776106, "activity_lines": [ 17.726667, 17.942728, 18.147143, 18.41957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.549999, "volume": 17000, "typical_volume": 19368.95, "trend": 18.663334, "fair_value": 26.459295, "relative_strength": -47.001238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.146403, "energy": 42.880414, "activity_lines": [ 17.276667, 17.667273, 17.961905, 18.275807 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }