{ "ticker": { "uuid": "521f3705-dc43-4681-a629-b4fd832cf793", "symbol": "MULL", "name": "GRANITESHARES 2X LONG MU DAILY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.496, "architecture_energy": 20.554, "architecture_maturity": 80.546, "architecture_confidence": 91.696, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.81, "rotation_up": 16.82, "upward_expansion": 51.16, "deceleration": 93.93, "rotation_down": 41.34, "downward_expansion": 21.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.180667, 22.900945, 22.374248, 19.083642 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.54, "trend_reference": 14.899705, "distance_from_trend": 0.24432, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.730858, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.235118, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 82.442743, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.91427, "excess_performance": 1.726816, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.24432, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.975185, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.235118, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -4.094908, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.824427, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.794849, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.91427, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.810467, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42486851, "relative_activity": 2.646194, "balance": 0.810467, "dry_up": 2.990038, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.520814, "annualized_volatility": 1.716331, "from_high_reference": -0.574052, "from_low_reference": 25.888972 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.899705, "fair_value_reference": 5.730858, "structural_low": 3.621752, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016935, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.147978, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 0.776738, "volume": 11915, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 0.875145, "volume": 15900, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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29.252457, "activity_lines": [ 25.584053, 26.988487, 22.072606, 18.126289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.76, "volume": 38498486, "typical_volume": 11172267.35, "trend": 14.047233, "fair_value": 5.466158, "relative_strength": 141.88016, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.971199, "energy": 24.048102, "activity_lines": [ 23.271333, 26.17864, 22.510032, 18.662955 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.48, "volume": 60043035, "typical_volume": 14074998.45, "trend": 14.452113, "fair_value": 5.588534, "relative_strength": 76.292112, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.273033, "energy": 20.583922, "activity_lines": [ 20.256667, 24.332487, 22.366554, 18.819907 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.54, "volume": 42486851, "typical_volume": 16055833.45, "trend": 14.899705, "fair_value": 5.730858, "relative_strength": 82.442743, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.495734, "energy": 20.554135, "activity_lines": [ 19.180667, 22.900945, 22.374248, 19.083642 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }