{ "ticker": { "uuid": "521f4e24-af4f-437a-a15f-25f4fa2fe857", "symbol": "V3ML", "name": "Vanguard ESG Emerging Markets All Cap UCITS ETF USD Inc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.278, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.95, "architecture_energy": 31.856, "architecture_maturity": 60.637, "architecture_confidence": 80.044, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.7, "rotation_up": 36.5, "upward_expansion": 61.62, "deceleration": 85.35, "rotation_down": 27.38, "downward_expansion": 20.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.5442, 7.567461, 7.503037, 7.373759 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.65, "trend_reference": 7.22205, "distance_from_trend": 0.059256, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.945387, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.855395, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.110146, "excess_performance": -0.060746, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059256, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048284, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.286712, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021652, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048554, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061468, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110146, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.669705, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125871, "relative_activity": 6.314863, "balance": 1.669705, "dry_up": 2.45121, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024593, "annualized_volatility": 0.148127, "from_high_reference": -0.019482, "from_low_reference": 0.251973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.22205, "fair_value_reference": 5.945387, "structural_low": 6.509, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of 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0.146418, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.163254, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146418, "worst_return": 0.146418, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015711, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06957, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.011604, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006351, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", 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7.360967, 7.235264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.663, "volume": 29502, "typical_volume": 12096.45, "trend": 7.094398, "fair_value": 5.87811, "relative_strength": -2.994019, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.217338, "energy": 62.24589, "activity_lines": [ 7.634084, 7.57931, 7.404384, 7.274434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.603, "volume": 3468, "typical_volume": 12160.0, "trend": 7.134454, "fair_value": 5.895713, "relative_strength": -2.339713, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.506454, "energy": 54.812414, "activity_lines": [ 7.626867, 7.591743, 7.439669, 7.307247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.456, "volume": 43001, "typical_volume": 13275.4, "trend": 7.165687, "fair_value": 5.911855, "relative_strength": -4.021929, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.914384, "energy": 41.664132, "activity_lines": [ 7.565733, 7.57542, 7.458595, 7.327992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.419, "volume": 23095, "typical_volume": 14277.65, "trend": 7.193924, "fair_value": 5.92752, "relative_strength": -5.051219, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.754549, "energy": 29.327338, "activity_lines": [ 7.512133, 7.550432, 7.471306, 7.344334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.65, "volume": 125871, "typical_volume": 19932.5, "trend": 7.22205, "fair_value": 5.945387, "relative_strength": -4.855395, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.950157, "energy": 31.855604, "activity_lines": [ 7.5442, 7.567461, 7.503037, 7.373759 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }