{ "ticker": { "uuid": "522dd1a5-608a-4964-9be5-66e11e0ff2e8", "symbol": "603320", "name": "ZHEJIANG DIBAY ELECTRIC CO.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.452, "architecture_energy": 72.361, "architecture_maturity": 22.58, "architecture_confidence": 86.444, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.33, "rotation_up": 11.59, "upward_expansion": 16.23, "deceleration": 39.27, "rotation_down": 73.49, "downward_expansion": 91.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.936, 16.806909, 19.036332, 19.983956 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.58, "trend_reference": 20.91468, "distance_from_trend": -0.207255, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.538561, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.002506, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.526808, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.234508, "excess_performance": -0.191304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.207255, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016017, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.002506, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.479532, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175268, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.275324, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.234508, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.721106, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9396300, "relative_activity": 0.664817, "balance": 0.721106, "dry_up": 0.921292, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145296, "annualized_volatility": 0.509012, "from_high_reference": -0.375874, "from_low_reference": 0.145819 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.91468, "fair_value_reference": 16.538561, "structural_low": 14.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.064504, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.051218, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.187075, "worst_return": -0.073286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.214423, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.169223, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.215909, "worst_return": 0.212936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.130597, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.153541, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.190561, "worst_return": 0.070634, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038674, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031069, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046103, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.221103, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070151, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.243715, "active": false }, { 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16.497494, "relative_strength": -19.668511, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.902667, "energy": 69.528271, "activity_lines": [ 18.126, 19.760988, 21.029802, 21.36407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.76, "volume": 15335231, "typical_volume": 15278958.15, "trend": 21.180509, "fair_value": 16.507397, "relative_strength": -19.007517, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.562769, "energy": 83.450309, "activity_lines": [ 17.182666, 18.769153, 20.465662, 21.008956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.2, "volume": 17285507, "typical_volume": 15092885.65, "trend": 21.084039, "fair_value": 16.514525, "relative_strength": -22.547072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.024631, "energy": 82.842264, "activity_lines": [ 16.313333, 17.820857, 19.890325, 20.623117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.59, "volume": 10067900, "typical_volume": 14642518.25, "trend": 20.992956, "fair_value": 16.522775, "relative_strength": -20.596438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.955537, "energy": 81.690992, "activity_lines": [ 15.894, 17.139818, 19.39859, 20.268663 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.58, "volume": 9396300, "typical_volume": 14133671.85, "trend": 20.91468, "fair_value": 16.538561, "relative_strength": -17.526808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.452428, "energy": 72.360682, "activity_lines": [ 15.936, 16.806909, 19.036332, 19.983956 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }