{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52361783-25ee-4011-b18f-90f00da8108b", "symbol": "TVRD", "name": "Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.691, "architecture_energy": 37.961, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.764, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.93, "rotation_up": 25.94, "upward_expansion": 8.68, "deceleration": 47.96, "rotation_down": 52.49, "downward_expansion": 77.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.330667, 2.398545, 2.720571, 2.940323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.87, "trend_reference": 3.272, "distance_from_trend": -0.428484, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.13352, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.90712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -82.390562, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.497312, "excess_performance": -0.684765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.428484, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146064, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.90712, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049345, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.823906, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052189, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.497312, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.272078, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1568933, "relative_activity": 0.215119, "balance": 6.272078, "dry_up": 0.550678, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.442785, "annualized_volatility": 1.36102, "from_high_reference": -0.957159, "from_low_reference": 0.246667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.272, "fair_value_reference": 20.13352, "structural_low": 1.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.026237, "positive_rate": 0.435897, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": -0.036016, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.673333, "worst_return": -0.556213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.045094, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.111128, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.320921, "worst_return": -0.599581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.20933, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.090816, "worst_return": -0.660569, "sufficient": true }, { 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-74.724375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.864499, "energy": 43.581236, "activity_lines": [ 2.458667, 2.692545, 2.987476, 3.20471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.2, "volume": 7567007, "typical_volume": 6905107.4, "trend": 3.481667, "fair_value": 22.277366, "relative_strength": -73.132201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.279322, "energy": 32.647452, "activity_lines": [ 2.720667, 2.727273, 2.986667, 3.18486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.51, "volume": 3665947, "typical_volume": 7075764.0, "trend": 3.427333, "fair_value": 21.53884, "relative_strength": -77.488602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.369654, "energy": 21.143469, "activity_lines": [ 2.715333, 2.654364, 2.923905, 3.122172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.1, "volume": 3263219, "typical_volume": 7230424.45, "trend": 3.361333, "fair_value": 20.829994, "relative_strength": -80.232345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.234811, "energy": 22.036621, "activity_lines": [ 2.581333, 2.534, 2.828857, 3.036538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.87, "volume": 1568933, "typical_volume": 7293334.8, "trend": 3.272, "fair_value": 20.13352, "relative_strength": -82.390562, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.691334, "energy": 37.961124, "activity_lines": [ 2.330667, 2.398545, 2.720571, 2.940323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }