{ "ticker": { "uuid": "523640f7-0c22-4952-bce8-d68f36e828d4", "symbol": "ASM", "name": "Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.628, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.234, "architecture_energy": 38.5, "architecture_maturity": 15.943, "architecture_confidence": 82.647, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.11, "rotation_up": 18.34, "upward_expansion": 8.89, "deceleration": 41.37, "rotation_down": 54.44, "downward_expansion": 79.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.367333, 8.518182, 8.826952, 9.161957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.6, "trend_reference": 9.839, "distance_from_trend": -0.024291, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.058974, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.36513, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.954745, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.306358, "excess_performance": -0.42678, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024291, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030046, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.36513, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.411655, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009547, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128234, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.306358, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.333755, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3460700, "relative_activity": 1.052012, "balance": 1.333755, "dry_up": 1.045613, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133814, "annualized_volatility": 0.857476, "from_high_reference": -0.404097, "from_low_reference": 0.908549 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.839, "fair_value_reference": 4.058974, "structural_low": 7.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.009553, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.3125, "worst_return": -0.204545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.007692, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.023209, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.636364, "worst_return": -0.293478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.255474, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.176732, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.075758, "worst_return": -0.282609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189873, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153285, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.143713, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.076531, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.16311, 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"typical_volume": 4116505.0, "trend": 9.914667, "fair_value": 3.872821, "relative_strength": -7.855106, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.253974, "energy": 28.930468, "activity_lines": [ 8.992667, 9.047273, 9.185286, 9.596753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.72, "volume": 3018300, "typical_volume": 3995775.0, "trend": 9.875, "fair_value": 3.916538, "relative_strength": -16.814576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.659098, "energy": 46.231438, "activity_lines": [ 8.563333, 8.784909, 9.024667, 9.455161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.95, "volume": 3800900, "typical_volume": 3926745.0, "trend": 9.831333, "fair_value": 3.961538, "relative_strength": -14.885129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.796179, "energy": 48.696338, "activity_lines": [ 8.290667, 8.595636, 8.911667, 9.330968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.42, "volume": 3478700, "typical_volume": 3772490.0, "trend": 9.808333, "fair_value": 4.003141, "relative_strength": -20.502968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.150128, "energy": 66.778529, "activity_lines": [ 7.920667, 8.343818, 8.760762, 9.175398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.6, "volume": 3460700, "typical_volume": 3289600.0, "trend": 9.839, "fair_value": 4.058974, "relative_strength": -0.954745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.234284, "energy": 38.499672, "activity_lines": [ 8.367333, 8.518182, 8.826952, 9.161957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }