{ "ticker": { "uuid": "523a7a2d-582d-493a-a3a6-52893e1a99c0", "symbol": "AEF", "name": "Australian Ethical Investment Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 68.493, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.275, "architecture_energy": 28.988, "architecture_maturity": 12.486, "architecture_confidence": 59.068, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.98, "rotation_up": 57.44, "upward_expansion": 45.4, "deceleration": 24.73, "rotation_down": 16.56, "downward_expansion": 18.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.514667, 4.452, 4.353762, 4.386712 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.59, "trend_reference": 4.451666, "distance_from_trend": 0.031075, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.954497, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.073569, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.345294, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.014703, "excess_performance": -0.049003, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031075, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071953, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.073569, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057889, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097725, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014703, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.715073, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 726563, "relative_activity": 1.39375, "balance": 1.715073, "dry_up": 1.059315, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068544, "annualized_volatility": 0.509981, "from_high_reference": -0.431544, "from_low_reference": 0.204724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.451666, "fair_value_reference": 4.954497, "structural_low": 3.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.062827, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.039727, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.290221, "worst_return": -0.159836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.243048, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.246283, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.456604, "worst_return": -0.298333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.388109, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.41614, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.690378, "worst_return": -0.418295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.233663, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077328, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113207, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.200024, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.202335, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.168576, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.030844, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.19877, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040284, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.727095, "volume": 465027, "typical_volume": 1080264.15, "trend": 3.21795, "fair_value": 5.985082, "relative_strength": -1.502631, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", 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"volume": 566962, "typical_volume": 562822.0, "trend": 4.502922, "fair_value": 4.94172, "relative_strength": -13.267398, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.099801, "energy": 18.850562, "activity_lines": [ 4.502, 4.351818, 4.326667, 4.391176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.37, "volume": 586270, "typical_volume": 550905.7, "trend": 4.480761, "fair_value": 4.945841, "relative_strength": -18.918607, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.884342, "energy": 21.264177, "activity_lines": [ 4.482, 4.375273, 4.325476, 4.3826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.42, "volume": 329091, "typical_volume": 531986.15, "trend": 4.465511, "fair_value": 4.949684, "relative_strength": -18.910874, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.880837, "energy": 19.687205, "activity_lines": [ 4.479333, 4.402909, 4.331095, 4.37868 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.59, "volume": 726563, "typical_volume": 521300.65, "trend": 4.451666, "fair_value": 4.954497, "relative_strength": -17.345294, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.275133, "energy": 28.988258, "activity_lines": [ 4.514667, 4.452, 4.353762, 4.386712 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }