{ "ticker": { "uuid": "525eeb40-554e-4610-a220-9dd0a98a2dc3", "symbol": "EALT4", "name": "Electro A\u00e7o Altona S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -78.114, "architecture_energy": 91.495, "architecture_maturity": 25.864, "architecture_confidence": 83.292, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 9.18, "upward_expansion": 21.94, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 84.99, "downward_expansion": 99.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.196667, 11.543273, 12.033704, 12.452204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 11.05, "trend_reference": 12.974025, "distance_from_trend": -0.148298, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.250776, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.017845, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.094009, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.217614, "excess_performance": -0.160565, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148298, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011815, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.017845, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235617, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13094, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021963, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217614, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.198381, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29200, "relative_activity": 0.735157, "balance": 0.198381, "dry_up": 0.862928, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037661, "annualized_volatility": 0.188063, "from_high_reference": -0.246494, "from_low_reference": 0.127861 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.974025, "fair_value_reference": 11.250776, "structural_low": 11.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.032717, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.05573, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.206896, "worst_return": -0.105221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.164164, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.080495, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.311912, "worst_return": 0.014435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.192977, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.054539, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.237882, "worst_return": 0.087774, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 11.45, "volume": 50700, "typical_volume": 46404.4, "trend": 13.233404, "fair_value": 11.181515, "relative_strength": -12.659116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.895128, "energy": 83.117503, "activity_lines": [ 11.88, 12.091091, 12.501998, 12.850971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.14, "volume": 28400, "typical_volume": 40844.4, "trend": 13.162498, "fair_value": 11.204523, "relative_strength": -14.478494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.016793, "energy": 91.93545, "activity_lines": [ 11.586, 11.884727, 12.335824, 12.715913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.09, "volume": 28800, "typical_volume": 39609.4, "trend": 13.064991, "fair_value": 11.227551, "relative_strength": -16.143743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.584278, "energy": 92.02555, "activity_lines": [ 11.352667, 11.702909, 12.179844, 12.582203 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.05, "volume": 29200, "typical_volume": 39719.4, "trend": 12.974025, "fair_value": 11.250776, "relative_strength": -13.094009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.113897, "energy": 91.495017, "activity_lines": [ 11.196667, 11.543273, 12.033704, 12.452204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }