{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52624ddb-eec9-416f-a04a-49444da55d49", "symbol": "300947", "name": "Shanghai DOBE Cultural & Creative Industry Development (Group)Co. LTD.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.82, "architecture_energy": 45.803, "architecture_maturity": 99.491, "architecture_confidence": 63.942, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.32, "rotation_up": 25.86, "upward_expansion": 18.58, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 48.6, "downward_expansion": 70.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.204667, 13.178727, 14.245524, 15.185634 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.04, "trend_reference": 16.630667, "distance_from_trend": -0.155776, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.19782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.183617, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.069052, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.276289, "excess_performance": -0.283688, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155776, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112589, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.183617, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199091, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.260691, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04956, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.276289, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.011717, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14669884, "relative_activity": 1.119533, "balance": 1.011717, "dry_up": 1.063712, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096483, "annualized_volatility": 0.3664, "from_high_reference": -0.412306, "from_low_reference": 0.198975 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.630667, "fair_value_reference": 17.19782, "structural_low": 11.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.029301, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.002733, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.250945, "worst_return": -0.19353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014158, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032261, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.19387, "worst_return": -0.201418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.041096, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.01008, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.397309, "worst_return": -0.143955, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-33.11934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.467493, "energy": 81.715042, "activity_lines": [ 12.901333, 13.61, 14.916905, 15.951893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.94, "volume": 13682259, "typical_volume": 13314779.85, "trend": 17.080333, "fair_value": 17.217115, "relative_strength": -36.662907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.755025, "energy": 70.246197, "activity_lines": [ 12.539333, 13.152909, 14.548857, 15.597527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.49, "volume": 14687659, "typical_volume": 13186577.5, "trend": 16.834, "fair_value": 17.207692, "relative_strength": -26.260099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.686537, "energy": 60.570116, "activity_lines": [ 12.799333, 13.086545, 14.360571, 15.365893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.04, "volume": 14669884, "typical_volume": 13103571.0, "trend": 16.630667, "fair_value": 17.19782, "relative_strength": -26.069052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.820231, "energy": 45.803419, "activity_lines": [ 13.204667, 13.178727, 14.245524, 15.185634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }