{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52642152-aa16-4bb5-851d-37cfae3b489c", "symbol": "1102", "name": "Asia Cement Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.851, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 4.787, "architecture_energy": 4.974, "architecture_maturity": 25.362, "architecture_confidence": 46.345, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.81, "rotation_up": 25.55, "upward_expansion": 24.32, "deceleration": 65.14, "rotation_down": 34.92, "downward_expansion": 26.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.093333, 33.193989, 33.005654, 32.94513 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 33.450001, "trend_reference": 32.948219, "distance_from_trend": 0.015229, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.699419, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.06301, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.096365, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.008936, "excess_performance": -0.432436, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015229, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016039, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.06301, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042317, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.300964, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0888, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008936, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.961695, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65372658, "relative_activity": 0.867618, "balance": 0.961695, "dry_up": 0.79083, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040934, "annualized_volatility": 0.107474, "from_high_reference": -0.110131, "from_low_reference": 0.10547 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.948219, "fair_value_reference": 35.699419, "structural_low": 30.258621, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.005076, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.009349, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.068044, "worst_return": -0.072335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.032748, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.102868, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067873, "worst_return": -0.091384, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022901, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.15932, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075995, "worst_return": -0.132797, "sufficient": true }, { 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32.952005, 32.915334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 33.450001, "volume": 65372658, "typical_volume": 75347316.0, "trend": 32.948219, "fair_value": 35.699419, "relative_strength": -30.096365, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.786916, "energy": 4.974008, "activity_lines": [ 33.093333, 33.193989, 33.005654, 32.94513 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }