{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52667c97-9e0a-4a00-82f0-bd924cd8e3fe", "symbol": "002912", "name": "Shenzhen Sinovatio Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.6, "architecture_energy": 53.488, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.539, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.99, "rotation_up": 27.53, "upward_expansion": 21.4, "deceleration": 66.98, "rotation_down": 49.25, "downward_expansion": 73.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.893334, 18.738546, 20.189218, 22.101503 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.360001, "trend_reference": 24.932492, "distance_from_trend": -0.183395, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.084612, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.188347, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.279028, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.346405, "excess_performance": -0.353804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183395, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124157, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.188347, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10566, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26279, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004744, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.346405, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.625137, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48046950, "relative_activity": 3.216058, "balance": 1.625137, "dry_up": 1.601356, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082644, "annualized_volatility": 0.405057, "from_high_reference": -0.416984, "from_low_reference": 0.233939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.932492, "fair_value_reference": 25.084612, "structural_low": 16.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.027786, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.008598, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.273621, "worst_return": -0.20666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.063802, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.000908, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.747219, "worst_return": -0.360617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.162663, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.095126, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.153439, "worst_return": -0.432828, 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"activity_lines": [ 18.684, 19.646646, 21.915822, 23.96723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.18, "volume": 15898778, "typical_volume": 13802878.75, "trend": 25.914525, "fair_value": 25.534013, "relative_strength": -37.051831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.828799, "energy": 82.430248, "activity_lines": [ 18.134666, 19.001905, 21.258035, 23.376941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.59, "volume": 16688360, "typical_volume": 13654192.9, "trend": 25.564306, "fair_value": 25.387277, "relative_strength": -35.128906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.972506, "energy": 68.368615, "activity_lines": [ 17.861333, 18.568413, 20.713118, 22.839875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.0, "volume": 15061058, "typical_volume": 13648518.5, "trend": 25.240463, "fair_value": 25.209094, "relative_strength": -28.223388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.158159, "energy": 65.611911, "activity_lines": [ 18.182667, 18.49, 20.361311, 22.416371 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.360001, "volume": 48046950, "typical_volume": 14939704.65, "trend": 24.932492, "fair_value": 25.084612, "relative_strength": -26.279028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.60024, "energy": 53.487726, "activity_lines": [ 18.893334, 18.738546, 20.189218, 22.101503 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }