{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5268b52c-4fb7-41cc-9dc1-0d6cd60f2f00", "symbol": "NCK", "name": "Nick Scali Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 95.588, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 7.432, "architecture_energy": 9.117, "architecture_maturity": 20.89, "architecture_confidence": 66.805, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.05, "rotation_up": 30.25, "upward_expansion": 32.77, "deceleration": 44.33, "rotation_down": 21.28, "downward_expansion": 43.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.085334, 15.943091, 15.472762, 15.738098 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.110001, "trend_reference": 16.901498, "distance_from_trend": 0.012336, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.728399, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.087841, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.970831, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.261705, "excess_performance": -0.325411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012336, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120094, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.087841, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121374, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159708, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111225, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.261705, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.815449, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2967262, "relative_activity": 1.698614, "balance": 0.815449, "dry_up": 1.281416, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07508, "annualized_volatility": 0.476846, "from_high_reference": -0.329929, "from_low_reference": 0.334633 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.901498, "fair_value_reference": 15.728399, "structural_low": 12.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.113139, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.091596, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.317851, "worst_return": -0.275578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.150447, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.175215, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.333097, "worst_return": -0.253289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.251895, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.234546, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.36116, "worst_return": -0.206951, "sufficient": true 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004417, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064286, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087624, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068133, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", 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1783183.0, "trend": 17.63268, "fair_value": 15.60774, "relative_strength": -20.7381, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.982515, "energy": 17.124803, "activity_lines": [ 15.863333, 15.525455, 15.263619, 15.999474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.05, "volume": 1479765, "typical_volume": 1731804.9, "trend": 17.349771, "fair_value": 15.64545, "relative_strength": -22.482765, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.730286, "energy": 13.66216, "activity_lines": [ 15.555333, 15.518727, 15.234714, 15.83285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.88, "volume": 1955842, "typical_volume": 1714723.4, "trend": 17.108888, "fair_value": 15.687071, "relative_strength": -19.799599, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.899666, "energy": 13.216363, "activity_lines": [ 15.616, 15.641818, 15.295, 15.738026 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.110001, "volume": 2967262, "typical_volume": 1746872.75, "trend": 16.901498, "fair_value": 15.728399, "relative_strength": -15.970831, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.43204, "energy": 9.11677, "activity_lines": [ 16.085334, 15.943091, 15.472762, 15.738098 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }