{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5269fe29-ca63-4199-81ea-483e18ff59ac", "symbol": "RATNAMANI", "name": "Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.895, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.805, "architecture_energy": 46.397, "architecture_maturity": 50.833, "architecture_confidence": 81.14, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.8, "rotation_up": 17.09, "upward_expansion": 24.01, "deceleration": 50.53, "rotation_down": 64.96, "downward_expansion": 46.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 2364.43335, 2469.890922, 2533.735715, 2504.962581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2197.600098, "trend_reference": 2436.113334, "distance_from_trend": -0.097907, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2854.03018, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.230001, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.42248, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.096826, "excess_performance": 0.140535, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097907, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024501, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.230001, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.240037, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084225, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286207, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096826, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.176823, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 435721, "relative_activity": 2.387726, "balance": 0.176823, "dry_up": 1.142282, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095153, "annualized_volatility": 0.39456, "from_high_reference": -0.343019, "from_low_reference": 0.134831 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2436.113334, "fair_value_reference": 2854.03018, "structural_low": 1936.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.019646, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.007244, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.091751, "worst_return": -0.184201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.105124, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.022383, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.253753, "worst_return": -0.10566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.138039, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.001669, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.21989, "worst_return": -0.289043, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 8.741192, "activity_lines": [ 2537.146696, 2580.025466, 2582.12143, 2525.516774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2358.899902, "volume": 155580, "typical_volume": 168912.8, "trend": 2437.626664, "fair_value": 2856.570285, "relative_strength": -1.055356, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.173199, "energy": 13.469321, "activity_lines": [ 2468.06665, 2537.756357, 2565.673801, 2520.448166 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2197.600098, "volume": 435721, "typical_volume": 182483.65, "trend": 2436.113334, "fair_value": 2854.03018, "relative_strength": -8.42248, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.805349, "energy": 46.396587, "activity_lines": [ 2364.43335, 2469.890922, 2533.735715, 2504.962581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }