{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52803e3d-534c-42df-a5f9-389472b0b5f5", "symbol": "ILT", "name": "Illinois Tool Works Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.201, "architecture_energy": 90.148, "architecture_maturity": 12.642, "architecture_confidence": 71.54, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.72, "rotation_up": 86.57, "upward_expansion": 98.44, "deceleration": 39.11, "rotation_down": 8.3, "downward_expansion": 20.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 249.233336, 242.967824, 233.644849, 231.968651 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 255.800003, "trend_reference": 230.862213, "distance_from_trend": 0.10802, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 220.890147, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.158042, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.740541, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.036762, "excess_performance": -0.027878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10802, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038507, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.158042, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.171342, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.057405, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082789, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036762, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.976549, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 122, "relative_activity": 0.380833, "balance": 0.976549, "dry_up": 0.940378, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034255, "annualized_volatility": 0.182658, "from_high_reference": -0.017665, "from_low_reference": 0.249753 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 230.862213, "fair_value_reference": 220.890147, "structural_low": 208.556975, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.006431, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.010503, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.085255, "worst_return": -0.082186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.000998, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042318, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.085708, "worst_return": -0.155114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019886, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042904, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.10653, "worst_return": -0.11194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 83.70254, "activity_lines": [ 245.046669, 238.699466, 230.954706, 230.275558 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 255.800003, "volume": 122, "typical_volume": 320.35, "trend": 230.862213, "fair_value": 220.890147, "relative_strength": 5.740541, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.200661, "energy": 90.14825, "activity_lines": [ 249.233336, 242.967824, 233.644849, 231.968651 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }