{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52877874-b8cc-4fc9-9a77-0b84d7ce5e6d", "symbol": "MVIS", "name": "Microvision Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.39, "architecture_energy": 60.273, "architecture_maturity": 94.53, "architecture_confidence": 85.956, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 17.71, "upward_expansion": 9.42, "deceleration": 49.52, "rotation_down": 65.76, "downward_expansion": 82.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.925633, 4.432845, 5.897481, 6.952671 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.385, "trend_reference": 8.463833, "distance_from_trend": -0.600063, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.376247, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.825302, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -75.407561, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.706469, "excess_performance": -0.893923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.600063, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267844, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.825302, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.240504, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.754076, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.318016, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.706469, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.509588, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4064860, "relative_activity": 0.114531, "balance": 0.509588, "dry_up": 0.845964, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.518009, "annualized_volatility": 1.17032, "from_high_reference": -0.853463, "from_low_reference": 0.088424 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.463833, "fair_value_reference": 19.376247, "structural_low": 3.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.038647, "positive_rate": 0.410256, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": -0.040262, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 1.648221, "worst_return": -0.41202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.062223, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.105818, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.613546, "worst_return": -0.51873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.161826, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.307927, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.345515, "worst_return": -0.667752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044643, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101017, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006623, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047244, 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"direction": -71.788739, "energy": 59.121404, "activity_lines": [ 5.0726, 5.611009, 7.015521, 8.000303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.7755, "volume": 55613973, "typical_volume": 37760242.75, "trend": 9.1237, "fair_value": 19.942433, "relative_strength": -72.354764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.920232, "energy": 58.290476, "activity_lines": [ 4.6302, 5.141018, 6.626829, 7.633997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.99, "volume": 21548324, "typical_volume": 36886387.75, "trend": 8.81185, "fair_value": 19.633394, "relative_strength": -70.261054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.306471, "energy": 56.883463, "activity_lines": [ 4.3718, 4.793236, 6.281457, 7.30279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.385, "volume": 4064860, "typical_volume": 35491506.55, "trend": 8.463833, "fair_value": 19.376247, "relative_strength": -75.407561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.389929, "energy": 60.273209, "activity_lines": [ 3.925633, 4.432845, 5.897481, 6.952671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }