{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5292742e-473a-42c8-b211-73cb3bdbdda6", "symbol": "COY", "name": "Coppermoly Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.108, "architecture_energy": 62.948, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.87, "rotation_up": 29.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.39, "rotation_down": 50.51, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.003333, 0.003473, 0.004443, 0.005439 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.003, "trend_reference": 0.006767, "distance_from_trend": -0.55665, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.010865, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.723894, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -67.682876, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.666667, "excess_performance": -0.730372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.55665, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2397, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.723894, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.509568, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.676829, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.516713, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.666667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.038668, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1293995, "relative_activity": 0.730584, "balance": 0.038668, "dry_up": 0.732363, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.307692, "annualized_volatility": 1.227303, "from_high_reference": -0.8125, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.006767, "fair_value_reference": 0.010865, "structural_low": 0.003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.485714, "directional_follow_through": 0.342857, "median_excess_return": 0.049446, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.086576, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015799, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.555556, "worst_return": -0.666667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.15, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.162286, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.7, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { 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"direction": -65.560364, "energy": 64.718952, "activity_lines": [ 0.0036, 0.003891, 0.005195, 0.006189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.004, "volume": 2651645, "typical_volume": 1891910.9, "trend": 0.007233, "fair_value": 0.010987, "relative_strength": -56.158398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.192263, "energy": 58.569019, "activity_lines": [ 0.003733, 0.003818, 0.004981, 0.00597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.003, "volume": 694371, "typical_volume": 1885764.45, "trend": 0.007, "fair_value": 0.010923, "relative_strength": -67.302143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.292133, "energy": 65.056262, "activity_lines": [ 0.003533, 0.003618, 0.0047, 0.005697 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.003, "volume": 1293995, "typical_volume": 1771178.95, "trend": 0.006767, "fair_value": 0.010865, "relative_strength": -67.682876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.10789, "energy": 62.947679, "activity_lines": [ 0.003333, 0.003473, 0.004443, 0.005439 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }