{ "ticker": { "uuid": "529765f8-4f0c-4ec4-a8b9-2b4fee50942a", "symbol": "UOCT", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - October", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.413, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.159, "architecture_energy": 80.547, "architecture_maturity": 41.773, "architecture_confidence": 80.73, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.76, "rotation_up": 66.7, "upward_expansion": 91.83, "deceleration": 47.64, "rotation_down": 24.95, "downward_expansion": 16.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.512933, 41.330635, 41.012596, 40.558615 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 41.8411, "trend_reference": 40.04183, "distance_from_trend": 0.044935, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.796016, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.168876, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.338063, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.065472, "excess_performance": -0.060153, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044935, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019902, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.168876, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004216, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053381, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003842, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065472, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.123418, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31008, "relative_activity": 0.251471, "balance": 2.123418, "dry_up": 0.231993, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008646, "annualized_volatility": 0.058412, "from_high_reference": -0.000929, "from_low_reference": 0.114467 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.04183, "fair_value_reference": 35.796016, "structural_low": 37.72, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": 0.006306, "positive_rate": 0.765957, "directional_follow_through": 0.765957, "median_excess_return": -0.005852, "regime_survival": 0.851064, "best_return": 0.057555, "worst_return": -0.033382, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.025805, "positive_rate": 0.823529, "directional_follow_through": 0.823529, "median_excess_return": -0.014393, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.07029, "worst_return": -0.016638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.05359, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.039919, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.077697, "worst_return": -0.06409, "sufficient": true }, { 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41.192447, 41.06862, 40.643, 40.242467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.1703, "volume": 28376, "typical_volume": 127303.6, "trend": 39.87513, "fair_value": 35.647151, "relative_strength": -2.862171, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.382168, "energy": 80.002719, "activity_lines": [ 41.205833, 41.104785, 40.745346, 40.330266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.5299, "volume": 27518, "typical_volume": 125780.6, "trend": 39.95646, "fair_value": 35.720753, "relative_strength": -2.923464, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.992505, "energy": 80.994375, "activity_lines": [ 41.3304, 41.196145, 40.871318, 40.437026 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.8411, "volume": 31008, "typical_volume": 123306.55, "trend": 40.04183, "fair_value": 35.796016, "relative_strength": -5.338063, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.158743, "energy": 80.547236, "activity_lines": [ 41.512933, 41.330635, 41.012596, 40.558615 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }