{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52982c17-d3cb-4322-9cf9-43ccde081e29", "symbol": "TREX", "name": "Trex Company Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.159, "architecture_energy": 27.313, "architecture_maturity": 50.82, "architecture_confidence": 82.361, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.67, "rotation_up": 34.44, "upward_expansion": 62.11, "deceleration": 87.67, "rotation_down": 25.32, "downward_expansion": 14.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.8, 46.214182, 44.356905, 43.016753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 49.17, "trend_reference": 41.978333, "distance_from_trend": 0.171319, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 62.146282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.208802, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.323348, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.1175, "excess_performance": -0.008125, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.171319, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095735, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.208802, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160351, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003233, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.252961, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1175, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.941191, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15979146, "relative_activity": 1.653353, "balance": 0.941191, "dry_up": 1.327048, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0899, "annualized_volatility": 0.432364, "from_high_reference": -0.25562, "from_low_reference": 0.651663 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.978333, "fair_value_reference": 62.146282, "structural_low": 35.11, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.116535, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.097246, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.080197, "worst_return": -0.202525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.0887, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.163344, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.235865, "worst_return": -0.429734, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.289517, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.313594, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.454321, "worst_return": -0.478728, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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41.023462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 48.47, "volume": 7499750, "typical_volume": 9423225.35, "trend": 40.488333, "fair_value": 62.946154, "relative_strength": -3.957012, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.824922, "energy": 77.7783, "activity_lines": [ 47.568667, 44.759273, 42.302143, 41.568452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.16, "volume": 7285236, "typical_volume": 9468450.5, "trend": 40.891, "fair_value": 62.800449, "relative_strength": -6.7232, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.123596, "energy": 73.818349, "activity_lines": [ 47.915333, 45.559091, 42.905, 41.998882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.13, "volume": 14465880, "typical_volume": 9374048.5, "trend": 41.217667, "fair_value": 62.661603, "relative_strength": -8.314482, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.57552, "energy": 57.48112, "activity_lines": [ 47.084667, 45.837636, 43.288667, 42.272366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.43, "volume": 9122627, "typical_volume": 9356538.7, "trend": 41.476667, "fair_value": 62.496026, "relative_strength": -9.942129, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.303367, "energy": 33.399783, "activity_lines": [ 45.720667, 45.717455, 43.492762, 42.415097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.36, "volume": 11734359, "typical_volume": 9322842.2, "trend": 41.727667, "fair_value": 62.308846, "relative_strength": -9.864569, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.97552, "energy": 19.009554, "activity_lines": [ 44.58, 45.475636, 43.662143, 42.536602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.17, "volume": 15979146, "typical_volume": 9664688.35, "trend": 41.978333, "fair_value": 62.146282, "relative_strength": -0.323348, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.159284, "energy": 27.312764, "activity_lines": [ 45.8, 46.214182, 44.356905, 43.016753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }