{ "ticker": { "uuid": "529918d3-576a-43c4-9d1b-781afe3f2b3f", "symbol": "5215", "name": "Ko Ja (Cayman) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.763, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.665, "architecture_energy": 9.428, "architecture_maturity": 30.662, "architecture_confidence": 74.995, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.74, "rotation_up": 23.6, "upward_expansion": 42.42, "deceleration": 77.41, "rotation_down": 34.77, "downward_expansion": 36.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.74, 39.932115, 40.687414, 39.940907 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.450001, "trend_reference": 38.899262, "distance_from_trend": 0.039866, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.284656, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.020217, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.72923, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.117985, "excess_performance": -0.227748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039866, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055126, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.020217, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077855, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187292, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009731, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117985, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.778339, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 263000, "relative_activity": 0.285736, "balance": 0.778339, "dry_up": 0.439224, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080667, "annualized_volatility": 0.381463, "from_high_reference": -0.172429, "from_low_reference": 0.270513 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.899262, "fair_value_reference": 41.284656, "structural_low": 34.415079, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.059322, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.074995, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.31016, "worst_return": -0.099881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.078171, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.18287, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.247956, "worst_return": -0.091615, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.187888, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.402121, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.187888, "worst_return": -0.187888, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": 25.489638, "energy": 16.394073, "activity_lines": [ 41.144421, 42.162805, 40.827518, 39.622738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.299999, "volume": 309369, "typical_volume": 880503.85, "trend": 38.146038, "fair_value": 41.312673, "relative_strength": -23.442195, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.69219, "energy": 14.563438, "activity_lines": [ 40.00653, 41.354272, 40.727793, 39.643079 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.0, "volume": 462000, "typical_volume": 888253.85, "trend": 38.33069, "fair_value": 41.298225, "relative_strength": -20.304317, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.027331, "energy": 17.585781, "activity_lines": [ 39.43486, 40.728218, 40.685328, 39.698173 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.849998, "volume": 383100, "typical_volume": 896353.35, "trend": 38.475418, "fair_value": 41.283086, "relative_strength": -23.776391, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.252411, "energy": 16.198624, "activity_lines": [ 38.613332, 39.974604, 40.516278, 39.667161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 41.0, "volume": 509000, "typical_volume": 917180.0, "trend": 38.73151, "fair_value": 41.288974, "relative_strength": -19.476859, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.970276, "energy": 15.655437, "activity_lines": [ 39.233333, 39.956041, 40.640192, 39.830037 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 40.450001, "volume": 263000, "typical_volume": 920429.5, "trend": 38.899262, "fair_value": 41.284656, "relative_strength": -18.72923, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.66453, "energy": 9.427647, "activity_lines": [ 39.74, 39.932115, 40.687414, 39.940907 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }