{ "ticker": { "uuid": "529952a0-625f-4574-ba96-fd8e975d065e", "symbol": "CCX", "name": "City Chic Collective Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.552, "architecture_energy": 25.233, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.913, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.44, "rotation_up": 31.25, "upward_expansion": 21.05, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 19.61, "downward_expansion": 55.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.051533, 0.048345, 0.048686, 0.057308 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.051, "trend_reference": 0.0725, "distance_from_trend": -0.296552, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.185447, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.724988, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.825228, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.514286, "excess_performance": -0.577991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.296552, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222381, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.724988, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019713, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.418252, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010976, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.514286, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.007591, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2784594, "relative_activity": 0.849922, "balance": 1.007591, "dry_up": 1.116331, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158371, "annualized_volatility": 0.735591, "from_high_reference": -0.670968, "from_low_reference": 0.545455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0725, "fair_value_reference": 0.185447, "structural_low": 0.033, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.09638, "positive_rate": 0.404762, "directional_follow_through": 0.595238, "median_excess_return": -0.110911, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.521258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.141762, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.117549, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.522388, "worst_return": -0.644068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.321739, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.332997, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.602564, "worst_return": -0.71875, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.241667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.141176, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080808, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false 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"fair_value": 0.197479, "relative_strength": -37.194956, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.546924, "energy": 59.023734, "activity_lines": [ 0.043333, 0.042727, 0.051462, 0.064069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.057, "volume": 7592518, "typical_volume": 3298599.8, "trend": 0.0793, "fair_value": 0.1956, "relative_strength": -33.16587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.620839, "energy": 46.283716, "activity_lines": [ 0.048533, 0.045109, 0.050881, 0.062505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.05, "volume": 2577948, "typical_volume": 3389306.3, "trend": 0.0773, "fair_value": 0.192812, "relative_strength": -40.645391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.478671, "energy": 32.094765, "activity_lines": [ 0.050267, 0.046182, 0.049886, 0.060615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.05, "volume": 1674657, "typical_volume": 3237659.6, "trend": 0.074967, "fair_value": 0.18919, "relative_strength": -41.568589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.747337, "energy": 33.314786, "activity_lines": [ 0.0512, 0.047236, 0.049152, 0.058854 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.051, "volume": 2784594, "typical_volume": 3276294.25, "trend": 0.0725, "fair_value": 0.185447, "relative_strength": -41.825228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.551619, "energy": 25.233358, "activity_lines": [ 0.051533, 0.048345, 0.048686, 0.057308 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }