{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52a57847-98bd-4dfd-9a93-a44c631539e4", "symbol": "XESW", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World ESG UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.906, "architecture_energy": 56.793, "architecture_maturity": 43.567, "architecture_confidence": 67.463, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.78, "rotation_up": 50.49, "upward_expansion": 79.58, "deceleration": 70.02, "rotation_down": 28.11, "downward_expansion": 8.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.387833, 41.22159, 40.836535, 40.106941 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.744999, "trend_reference": 39.329917, "distance_from_trend": 0.086832, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.900331, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.260902, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.509152, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.127242, "excess_performance": 0.076006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086832, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023985, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.260902, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033422, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015092, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001395, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.127242, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.101839, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17945, "relative_activity": 0.521979, "balance": 2.101839, "dry_up": 1.804208, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019041, "annualized_volatility": 0.139261, "from_high_reference": -0.159541, "from_low_reference": 0.215901 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.329917, "fair_value_reference": 33.900331, "structural_low": 35.154999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.013452, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.016807, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.096522, "worst_return": -0.065503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014386, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001829, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.106741, "worst_return": -0.028616, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.066254, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.001332, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.14199, "worst_return": -0.001338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03798, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.075589, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006699, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01202, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049238, "active": 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"activity_lines": [ 41.1975, 41.1105, 40.197809, 39.578823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.5, "volume": 75361, "typical_volume": 29458.9, "trend": 39.06675, "fair_value": 33.612254, "relative_strength": -1.236019, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.218788, "energy": 49.811559, "activity_lines": [ 40.982333, 41.022454, 40.314643, 39.67557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.514999, "volume": 95536, "typical_volume": 34023.65, "trend": 39.128583, "fair_value": 33.701068, "relative_strength": -2.376094, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.919519, "energy": 40.738299, "activity_lines": [ 40.789333, 40.929227, 40.422226, 39.769005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.834999, "volume": 59264, "typical_volume": 34546.4, "trend": 39.213417, "fair_value": 33.793824, "relative_strength": -2.732152, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.366996, "energy": 32.749728, "activity_lines": [ 40.766333, 40.901091, 40.547404, 39.879097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.744999, "volume": 17945, "typical_volume": 34378.8, "trend": 39.329917, "fair_value": 33.900331, "relative_strength": 1.509152, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.905912, "energy": 56.793245, "activity_lines": [ 41.387833, 41.22159, 40.836535, 40.106941 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }