{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52a726c8-5075-4d8e-b666-9f6fd6551f71", "symbol": "ETX", "name": "Eaton Vance Municipal Income 2028 Term Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.071, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.438, "architecture_energy": 39.497, "architecture_maturity": 3.231, "architecture_confidence": 73.66, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.55, "rotation_up": 16.49, "upward_expansion": 21.75, "deceleration": 51.89, "rotation_down": 62.65, "downward_expansion": 51.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.370841, 18.472069, 18.582069, 18.58197 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.277148, "trend_reference": 18.562674, "distance_from_trend": -0.015382, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.118206, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.067702, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.093819, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011095, "excess_performance": -0.13672, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015382, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001124, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.067702, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042232, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120938, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034689, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011095, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.887576, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63448, "relative_activity": 0.981236, "balance": 0.887576, "dry_up": 0.987913, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019344, "annualized_volatility": 0.074878, "from_high_reference": -0.055389, "from_low_reference": 0.049173 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.562674, "fair_value_reference": 17.118206, "structural_low": 18.02, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.000737, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004864, "worst_return": -0.006338, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.00116, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002603, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.027041, "worst_return": -0.029361, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.025267, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025116, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.031876, "worst_return": -0.082409, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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18.413209, "activity_lines": [ 18.603701, 18.693777, 18.668559, 18.622641 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.58, "volume": 60585, "typical_volume": 63103.45, "trend": 18.551733, "fair_value": 17.056689, "relative_strength": -7.711673, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.508422, "energy": 12.095481, "activity_lines": [ 18.58204, 18.662937, 18.663359, 18.625072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.53, "volume": 35526, "typical_volume": 61684.95, "trend": 18.563699, "fair_value": 17.077533, "relative_strength": -7.260784, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.761551, "energy": 8.943765, "activity_lines": [ 18.569138, 18.624918, 18.653181, 18.62367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.2, "volume": 95960, "typical_volume": 64082.3, "trend": 18.559787, "fair_value": 17.097095, "relative_strength": -9.650153, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.264427, "energy": 31.65091, "activity_lines": [ 18.44506, 18.534016, 18.613166, 18.600205 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.277148, "volume": 63448, "typical_volume": 64661.3, "trend": 18.562674, "fair_value": 17.118206, "relative_strength": -12.093819, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.438158, "energy": 39.497243, "activity_lines": [ 18.370841, 18.472069, 18.582069, 18.58197 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }