{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52a99be4-a591-4949-9072-4facbf3c80b0", "symbol": "MFEA", "name": "MFE-Mediaforeurope N.V.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.202, "architecture_energy": 41.365, "architecture_maturity": 18.792, "architecture_confidence": 84.703, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.7, "rotation_up": 17.19, "upward_expansion": 5.08, "deceleration": 51.72, "rotation_down": 57.46, "downward_expansion": 78.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.636494, 2.656851, 2.751337, 2.778655 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.7, "trend_reference": 2.84096, "distance_from_trend": -0.049617, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.622768, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029447, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.816887, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.104775, "excess_performance": -0.275666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049617, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035852, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029447, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106654, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218169, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073403, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104775, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.727965, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11810614, "relative_activity": 1.134058, "balance": 2.727965, "dry_up": 1.62181, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056511, "annualized_volatility": 0.358232, "from_high_reference": -0.301604, "from_low_reference": 0.163793 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.84096, "fair_value_reference": 2.622768, "structural_low": 2.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0335, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.024386, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.309172, "worst_return": -0.010677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.153138, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.052762, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.278224, "worst_return": 0.115385, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.128503, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.013208, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.503473, "worst_return": 0.115385, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024113, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013314, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.169666, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048318, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03211, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032258, "active": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -23.547755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.629623, "energy": 77.215847, "activity_lines": [ 2.617283, 2.728931, 2.790196, 2.82214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.594, "volume": 23156960, "typical_volume": 11564742.2, "trend": 2.866026, "fair_value": 2.613936, "relative_strength": -22.876051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.405336, "energy": 75.279447, "activity_lines": [ 2.59883, 2.690953, 2.771697, 2.803768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.628, "volume": 10960187, "typical_volume": 10787216.8, "trend": 2.851226, "fair_value": 2.61795, "relative_strength": -21.992722, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.176767, "energy": 67.837304, "activity_lines": [ 2.605945, 2.664902, 2.758264, 2.788412 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.7, "volume": 11810614, "typical_volume": 10414469.95, "trend": 2.84096, "fair_value": 2.622768, "relative_strength": -21.816887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.201865, "energy": 41.364864, "activity_lines": [ 2.636494, 2.656851, 2.751337, 2.778655 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }