{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52b3ebb8-1597-40fc-9ed3-ecb3bbb89942", "symbol": "GHI", "name": "Greystone Housing Impact Investors LP", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.658, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -2.141, "architecture_energy": 4.629, "architecture_maturity": 21.866, "architecture_confidence": 56.933, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.33, "rotation_up": 29.54, "upward_expansion": 34.58, "deceleration": 43.16, "rotation_down": 24.63, "downward_expansion": 45.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.532667, 5.488254, 5.360181, 5.517864 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.75, "trend_reference": 5.940136, "distance_from_trend": -0.032009, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.834771, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.41534, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.733833, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.225966, "excess_performance": -0.351591, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032009, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058894, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.41534, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074263, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257338, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16916, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.225966, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.950845, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 314064, "relative_activity": 0.720002, "balance": 0.950845, "dry_up": 0.755164, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078573, "annualized_volatility": 0.538198, "from_high_reference": -0.432852, "from_low_reference": 0.234576 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.940136, "fair_value_reference": 9.834771, "structural_low": 4.65747, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.001309, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.050512, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.055767, "worst_return": -0.322429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.025357, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.109825, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.081831, "worst_return": -0.2889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.063522, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.169272, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.083492, "worst_return": -0.225966, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016611, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.063438, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080674, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.004248, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045543, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008547, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.192757, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064136, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.107272, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.57925, "volume": 171433, "typical_volume": 165876.35, "trend": 11.964139, "fair_value": 11.173032, "relative_strength": -13.037262, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", 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5.335194, 5.350461, 5.721706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.38, "volume": 218021, "typical_volume": 493644.15, "trend": 6.12798, "fair_value": 9.992864, "relative_strength": -33.251428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.234207, "energy": 22.327599, "activity_lines": [ 5.522352, 5.356583, 5.324588, 5.671822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.23, "volume": 213892, "typical_volume": 485899.6, "trend": 6.088071, "fair_value": 9.951928, "relative_strength": -32.959448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.765379, "energy": 23.227789, "activity_lines": [ 5.460348, 5.349458, 5.295619, 5.613888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.12, "volume": 295203, "typical_volume": 487178.85, "trend": 6.033236, "fair_value": 9.909864, "relative_strength": -32.875157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.687982, "energy": 17.870195, "activity_lines": [ 5.348251, 5.323288, 5.26757, 5.551432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.76, "volume": 494447, "typical_volume": 498740.6, "trend": 5.997062, "fair_value": 9.87195, "relative_strength": -24.085126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.321434, "energy": 10.961992, "activity_lines": [ 5.446, 5.413773, 5.311513, 5.533804 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.75, "volume": 314064, "typical_volume": 436198.55, "trend": 5.940136, "fair_value": 9.834771, "relative_strength": -25.733833, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.141224, "energy": 4.628563, "activity_lines": [ 5.532667, 5.488254, 5.360181, 5.517864 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }