{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52bd840a-0dcd-4382-b078-b4b5e3031dea", "symbol": "600889", "name": "Nanjing Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.389, "architecture_energy": 72.102, "architecture_maturity": 13.362, "architecture_confidence": 80.456, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.93, "rotation_up": 11.0, "upward_expansion": 18.25, "deceleration": 34.31, "rotation_down": 73.73, "downward_expansion": 89.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.875333, 14.612545, 15.036952, 15.224194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.79, "trend_reference": 15.617667, "distance_from_trend": -0.117026, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.509679, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.198122, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.111626, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.207926, "excess_performance": -0.164723, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117026, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006067, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.198122, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.294489, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111116, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032139, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207926, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.860839, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10635155, "relative_activity": 0.664316, "balance": 0.860839, "dry_up": 0.790624, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0849, "annualized_volatility": 0.38322, "from_high_reference": -0.268047, "from_low_reference": 0.084972 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.617667, "fair_value_reference": 11.509679, "structural_low": 12.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.032258, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.035717, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.510256, "worst_return": -0.135255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.091821, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.06835, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.281174, "worst_return": -0.144981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.084257, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.054263, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.208511, "worst_return": -0.215017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068528, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.099287, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055227, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088549, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023091, "active": false }, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 15.77, "volume": 21651439, "typical_volume": 20857913.7, "trend": 15.877333, "fair_value": 11.2775, "relative_strength": -1.124617, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.597303, "energy": 5.981529, "activity_lines": [ 15.909333, 15.853636, 15.600714, 15.728688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.98, "volume": 14132302, "typical_volume": 18769113.1, "trend": 15.869667, "fair_value": 11.343333, "relative_strength": -0.104964, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.668117, "energy": 17.127239, "activity_lines": [ 15.605333, 15.706545, 15.544476, 15.670796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.35, "volume": 14355272, "typical_volume": 17875096.65, "trend": 15.821333, "fair_value": 11.398141, "relative_strength": -11.74389, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.773307, "energy": 52.93342, "activity_lines": [ 14.838, 15.279273, 15.347048, 15.508237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.35, "volume": 11506228, "typical_volume": 16760237.9, "trend": 15.721333, "fair_value": 11.452564, "relative_strength": -11.831396, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.61958, "energy": 70.706478, "activity_lines": [ 14.226667, 14.886545, 15.164619, 15.348796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.79, "volume": 10635155, "typical_volume": 16009171.25, "trend": 15.617667, "fair_value": 11.509679, "relative_strength": -11.111626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.38893, "energy": 72.102108, "activity_lines": [ 13.875333, 14.612545, 15.036952, 15.224194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }