{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52c9f387-1169-45b7-843a-ebc9437254b7", "symbol": "SOLIDX", "name": "SolidX AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.705, "architecture_energy": 34.276, "architecture_maturity": 14.275, "architecture_confidence": 95.769, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.85, "rotation_up": 16.38, "upward_expansion": 4.41, "deceleration": 46.43, "rotation_down": 53.32, "downward_expansion": 77.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.164, 2.219273, 2.311238, 2.355828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.24, "trend_reference": 2.430667, "distance_from_trend": -0.078442, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.915353, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.231654, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.849898, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.066667, "excess_performance": -0.128161, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078442, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05593, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.231654, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084016, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148499, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015569, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.472677, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22010, "relative_activity": 1.184183, "balance": 0.472677, "dry_up": 0.835721, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171016, "annualized_volatility": 0.511214, "from_high_reference": -0.356322, "from_low_reference": 0.836066 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.430667, "fair_value_reference": 2.915353, "structural_low": 1.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.029067, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.0304, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.538462, "worst_return": -0.278997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.103947, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.086275, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.555556, "worst_return": -0.313559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.061728, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.240496, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.028846, "worst_return": -0.461794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.354011, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.385545, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.251748, "worst_return": -0.456274, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151584, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.342105, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.413919, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15727, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.368056, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135294, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069565, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132231, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00885, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.08, "volume": 54805, "typical_volume": 103485.15, "trend": 5.319667, "fair_value": 5.104946, "relative_strength": -24.350371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.397286, "energy": 42.349427, "activity_lines": [ 2.265333, 2.370545, 2.397429, 2.438409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.26, "volume": 15337, "typical_volume": 20645.4, "trend": 2.506667, "fair_value": 2.955032, "relative_strength": -11.035645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.177997, "energy": 42.852483, "activity_lines": [ 2.233333, 2.344364, 2.381333, 2.421333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.18, "volume": 15284, "typical_volume": 19489.2, "trend": 2.492, "fair_value": 2.940865, "relative_strength": -15.222498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.783899, "energy": 46.75497, "activity_lines": [ 2.198667, 2.301455, 2.359333, 2.400258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.02, "volume": 9502, "typical_volume": 18660.55, "trend": 2.456667, "fair_value": 2.926955, "relative_strength": -22.085889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.066733, "energy": 48.643753, "activity_lines": [ 2.136, 2.233818, 2.32381, 2.369806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.24, "volume": 22010, "typical_volume": 18586.65, "trend": 2.430667, "fair_value": 2.915353, "relative_strength": -14.849898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.705233, "energy": 34.275572, "activity_lines": [ 2.164, 2.219273, 2.311238, 2.355828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }