{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52ce8f68-458d-429e-80cd-468da6c69a83", "symbol": "AZO", "name": "AutoZone Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.54, "architecture_energy": 39.18, "architecture_maturity": 38.503, "architecture_confidence": 90.873, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.52, "rotation_up": 23.1, "upward_expansion": 5.1, "deceleration": 55.41, "rotation_down": 49.84, "downward_expansion": 78.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 3049.28, 3067.145818, 3152.146857, 3245.956817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3127.29, "trend_reference": 3377.106333, "distance_from_trend": -0.073973, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3268.915897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.043325, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.772892, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.150484, "excess_performance": -0.276109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073973, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051106, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.043325, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130551, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227729, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054003, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150484, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.102559, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 808611, "relative_activity": 0.571189, "balance": 1.102559, "dry_up": 0.547551, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067254, "annualized_volatility": 0.305446, "from_high_reference": -0.287326, "from_low_reference": 0.077558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3377.106333, "fair_value_reference": 3268.915897, "structural_low": 2902.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013798, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.022901, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.121214, "worst_return": -0.047908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.020836, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.071419, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.029275, "worst_return": -0.070948, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.043749, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.139739, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.043749, "worst_return": -0.043749, "sufficient": 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"direction": -63.596166, "energy": 45.809412, "activity_lines": [ 3108.778667, 3127.628727, 3251.273619, 3341.005785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3046.44, "volume": 892039, "typical_volume": 1427524.4, "trend": 3412.864333, "fair_value": 3258.093077, "relative_strength": -23.603822, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.391927, "energy": 43.917221, "activity_lines": [ 3088.165333, 3103.038545, 3222.593857, 3316.621634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2957.41, "volume": 688059, "typical_volume": 1412632.7, "trend": 3396.488, "fair_value": 3261.167692, "relative_strength": -24.843517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.654724, "energy": 47.272708, "activity_lines": [ 3042.532667, 3070.438364, 3188.811905, 3287.237484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3016.25, "volume": 711880, "typical_volume": 1417025.2, "trend": 3386.902333, "fair_value": 3264.791154, "relative_strength": -23.561664, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.194566, "energy": 45.461508, "activity_lines": [ 3023.651333, 3055.149818, 3163.890333, 3262.706 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3127.29, "volume": 808611, "typical_volume": 1415663.0, "trend": 3377.106333, "fair_value": 3268.915897, "relative_strength": -22.772892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.539516, "energy": 39.179626, "activity_lines": [ 3049.28, 3067.145818, 3152.146857, 3245.956817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }