{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52d4f6f8-5728-4585-9758-b35d22a64696", "symbol": "TDF", "name": "Templeton Dragon Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.207, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.535, "architecture_energy": 9.542, "architecture_maturity": 10.952, "architecture_confidence": 59.587, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.8, "rotation_up": 26.16, "upward_expansion": 18.46, "deceleration": 39.19, "rotation_down": 27.23, "downward_expansion": 54.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.844, 10.76129, 10.816534, 10.877631 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.13, "trend_reference": 11.027363, "distance_from_trend": 0.009308, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.161633, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.214849, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.570287, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.056616, "excess_performance": -0.182241, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009308, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01461, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.214849, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043322, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105703, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039643, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056616, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.61649, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 232737, "relative_activity": 0.795284, "balance": 0.61649, "dry_up": 1.016279, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050656, "annualized_volatility": 0.168852, "from_high_reference": -0.079041, "from_low_reference": 0.126649 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.027363, "fair_value_reference": 9.161633, "structural_low": 10.254884, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.004443, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.005319, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.311604, "worst_return": -0.127018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.034812, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.084926, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.110821, "worst_return": -0.270411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.108611, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.211055, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.27042, "worst_return": -0.199098, "sufficient": true }, { 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170051, "typical_volume": 322176.85, "trend": 11.109589, "fair_value": 9.11568, "relative_strength": -11.481107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.203126, "energy": 28.619819, "activity_lines": [ 10.689464, 10.732336, 10.840104, 10.952436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.63, "volume": 368790, "typical_volume": 299723.2, "trend": 11.091459, "fair_value": 9.128224, "relative_strength": -11.648788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.665582, "energy": 26.793228, "activity_lines": [ 10.685389, 10.696661, 10.815057, 10.921495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.65, "volume": 247460, "typical_volume": 296070.4, "trend": 11.068053, "fair_value": 9.136494, "relative_strength": -10.782675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.833042, "energy": 19.867675, "activity_lines": [ 10.684667, 10.677165, 10.795731, 10.893014 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.74, "volume": 340654, "typical_volume": 296606.95, "trend": 11.040382, "fair_value": 9.146788, "relative_strength": -10.833479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.134871, "energy": 17.393462, "activity_lines": [ 10.706667, 10.682984, 10.786953, 10.871849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.13, "volume": 232737, "typical_volume": 292646.4, "trend": 11.027363, "fair_value": 9.161633, "relative_strength": -10.570287, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.534606, "energy": 9.541591, "activity_lines": [ 10.844, 10.76129, 10.816534, 10.877631 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }