{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52d7691b-080e-4e86-b152-376252e57f67", "symbol": "AAU", "name": "Ariana Resources plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.045, "architecture_energy": 60.064, "architecture_maturity": 16.168, "architecture_confidence": 87.697, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.71, "rotation_up": 11.96, "upward_expansion": 12.44, "deceleration": 39.09, "rotation_down": 71.02, "downward_expansion": 90.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0153, 0.01611, 0.017363, 0.017886 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.015, "trend_reference": 0.018228, "distance_from_trend": -0.177105, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.019536, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.232195, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.744677, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2, "excess_performance": -0.251235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177105, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046903, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.232195, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176776, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197447, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301856, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.767582, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31697059, "relative_activity": 1.803341, "balance": 0.767582, "dry_up": 1.614812, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.180667, "annualized_volatility": 0.561003, "from_high_reference": -0.347826, "from_low_reference": 0.153846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.018228, "fair_value_reference": 0.019536, "structural_low": 0.01305, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.024575, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.01177, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.682927, "worst_return": -0.263158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.024678, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012703, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.44, "worst_return": -0.347945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.047182, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.089064, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.317073, "worst_return": -0.219048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.054795, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.140625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.19403, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128205, "active": false }, 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-16.312428, "energy": 19.842508, "activity_lines": [ 0.017737, 0.01846, 0.018827, 0.018712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.01655, "volume": 7015472, "typical_volume": 18357112.15, "trend": 0.018127, "fair_value": 0.019805, "relative_strength": -9.849845, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.17143, "energy": 40.296331, "activity_lines": [ 0.017143, 0.018066, 0.018585, 0.018613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.016, "volume": 15172573, "typical_volume": 17264033.6, "trend": 0.018202, "fair_value": 0.019757, "relative_strength": -13.303555, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.190839, "energy": 49.244925, "activity_lines": [ 0.016663, 0.017608, 0.018302, 0.018476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.01625, "volume": 10473223, "typical_volume": 16053388.35, "trend": 0.01826, "fair_value": 0.019679, "relative_strength": -12.830845, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.868866, "energy": 46.245131, "activity_lines": [ 0.016427, 0.01725, 0.01807, 0.01835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0143, "volume": 56190433, "typical_volume": 17580194.2, "trend": 0.018228, "fair_value": 0.0196, "relative_strength": -23.609377, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.625993, "energy": 64.445975, "activity_lines": [ 0.015657, 0.016578, 0.017669, 0.018095 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.015, "volume": 31697059, "typical_volume": 17576853.15, "trend": 0.018228, "fair_value": 0.019536, "relative_strength": -19.744677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.045424, "energy": 60.06433, "activity_lines": [ 0.0153, 0.01611, 0.017363, 0.017886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }