{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52db3a90-252d-49ac-a482-30823681335d", "symbol": "USAPA", "name": "UBS MSCI USA Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.554, "architecture_energy": 37.276, "architecture_maturity": 52.825, "architecture_confidence": 76.402, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.37, "rotation_up": 29.41, "upward_expansion": 65.67, "deceleration": 87.7, "rotation_down": 28.0, "downward_expansion": 27.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.118666, 22.247818, 22.087186, 21.582355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.959999, "trend_reference": 20.982067, "distance_from_trend": 0.046608, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.54825, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183939, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.490257, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.11733, "excess_performance": -0.053562, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046608, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026006, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183939, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027533, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049987, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11733, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.904762, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.904762, "dry_up": 0.53328, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013188, "annualized_volatility": 0.153013, "from_high_reference": -0.047289, "from_low_reference": 0.166348 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.982067, "fair_value_reference": 18.54825, "structural_low": 18.827999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006283, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.009103, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.097079, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.079669, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.057398, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.131841, "worst_return": 0.0252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.107984, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.184049, "worst_return": 0.023698, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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1376.0, "trend": 20.802067, "fair_value": 18.350378, "relative_strength": -4.322673, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.055146, "energy": 67.059741, "activity_lines": [ 22.473334, 22.458727, 21.768681, 21.259791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.290001, "volume": 2258, "typical_volume": 1488.9, "trend": 20.852567, "fair_value": 18.400904, "relative_strength": -4.531002, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.668175, "energy": 55.256374, "activity_lines": [ 22.431334, 22.443818, 21.883343, 21.355787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.290001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1443.0, "trend": 20.903067, "fair_value": 18.45143, "relative_strength": -4.252767, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.825367, "energy": 57.781394, "activity_lines": [ 22.389001, 22.41691, 21.984062, 21.448525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.959999, "volume": 918, "typical_volume": 1488.9, "trend": 20.942567, "fair_value": 18.49984, "relative_strength": -6.046589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.367605, "energy": 50.269544, "activity_lines": [ 22.242667, 22.327455, 22.04101, 21.516714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.959999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1488.9, "trend": 20.982067, "fair_value": 18.54825, "relative_strength": -8.490257, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.55438, "energy": 37.275968, "activity_lines": [ 22.118666, 22.247818, 22.087186, 21.582355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }