{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52dee0a8-4c58-4c24-91e3-4709b03cdc25", "symbol": "000931", "name": "Beijing Centergate Technologies (holding) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.538, "architecture_energy": 49.382, "architecture_maturity": 47.08, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.42, "rotation_up": 23.74, "upward_expansion": 7.7, "deceleration": 53.91, "rotation_down": 51.12, "downward_expansion": 78.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.076, 4.131621, 4.272343, 4.46503 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.14, "trend_reference": 4.699989, "distance_from_trend": -0.119147, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.932626, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16069, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.208452, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.194553, "excess_performance": -0.201952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.119147, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063253, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16069, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082441, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192085, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083957, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.194553, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.252529, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39977841, "relative_activity": 0.885417, "balance": 0.252529, "dry_up": 1.098152, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066605, "annualized_volatility": 0.196919, "from_high_reference": -0.282496, "from_low_reference": 0.101064 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.699989, "fair_value_reference": 4.932626, "structural_low": 3.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.019043, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": 0.023014, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.31759, "worst_return": -0.157518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.020803, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.011968, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.295567, "worst_return": -0.089686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.035629, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.015303, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.169207, "worst_return": -0.145161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085526, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100604, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.169643, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013011, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": 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4.074667, 4.134861, 4.308913, 4.502728 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.14, "volume": 39977841, "typical_volume": 45151451.4, "trend": 4.699989, "fair_value": 4.932626, "relative_strength": -19.208452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.538094, "energy": 49.381608, "activity_lines": [ 4.076, 4.131621, 4.272343, 4.46503 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }