{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52e79a54-98a2-4e21-93be-b9321e16f658", "symbol": "GOKUL", "name": "Gokul Refoils & Solvent Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 58.762, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.809, "architecture_energy": 15.08, "architecture_maturity": 10.474, "architecture_confidence": 93.273, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.34, "rotation_up": 24.11, "upward_expansion": 44.77, "deceleration": 75.94, "rotation_down": 38.76, "downward_expansion": 34.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.616, 40.249272, 40.438381, 40.199806 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.68, "trend_reference": 39.547333, "distance_from_trend": 0.003355, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.322692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104748, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.091736, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.135336, "excess_performance": 0.179045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003355, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008672, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104748, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016719, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000917, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135336, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.145615, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 705738, "relative_activity": 1.835613, "balance": 1.145615, "dry_up": 1.846967, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070526, "annualized_volatility": 0.427617, "from_high_reference": -0.135324, "from_low_reference": 0.28 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.547333, "fair_value_reference": 44.322692, "structural_low": 31.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.01203, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.012547, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.122628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.000983, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.021362, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.497396, "worst_return": -0.174883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.039416, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.105659, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.862903, "worst_return": -0.247681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.081956, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.081784, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.267419, "worst_return": -0.141606, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.154848, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037392, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045959, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055524, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013641, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089784, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069052, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023121, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", 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40.806714, 40.197484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.040001, "volume": 737394, "typical_volume": 338979.75, "trend": 39.494667, "fair_value": 44.1675, "relative_strength": 1.439888, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.71025, "energy": 21.361958, "activity_lines": [ 41.100667, 41.099091, 40.760143, 40.233204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.279999, "volume": 773676, "typical_volume": 367867.0, "trend": 39.522, "fair_value": 44.216731, "relative_strength": 2.0702, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.86306, "energy": 11.079538, "activity_lines": [ 40.424, 40.753818, 40.642619, 40.219355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.049999, "volume": 623605, "typical_volume": 382415.15, "trend": 39.511, "fair_value": 44.26609, "relative_strength": -0.981997, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.841246, "energy": 10.780581, "activity_lines": [ 39.83, 40.432909, 40.506571, 40.188903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.68, "volume": 705738, "typical_volume": 384470.0, "trend": 39.547333, "fair_value": 44.322692, "relative_strength": -0.091736, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.809352, "energy": 15.080347, "activity_lines": [ 39.616, 40.249272, 40.438381, 40.199806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }