{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52e8a2bd-6744-46a6-930b-be10e037d3db", "symbol": "DBX", "name": "Dropbox, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 91.857, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 97.415, "architecture_energy": 98.886, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.085, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.23, "rotation_up": 88.51, "upward_expansion": 97.66, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 8.05, "downward_expansion": 21.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 549.21001, 524.919097, 494.102623, 476.73839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 594.030029, "trend_reference": 461.051668, "distance_from_trend": 0.288424, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 497.092308, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.195009, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.384497, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.320067, "excess_performance": 0.374733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.288424, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014497, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.195009, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.326157, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.173845, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.416858, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.320067, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.036355, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 411, "relative_activity": 0.396546, "balance": 0.036355, "dry_up": 0.108544, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031889, "annualized_volatility": 0.419337, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.575676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 461.051668, "fair_value_reference": 497.092308, "structural_low": 377.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.016484, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.040871, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.150215, "worst_return": -0.27296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003865, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029898, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.287554, "worst_return": -0.241683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.061418, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030416, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.201166, "worst_return": -0.19757, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 530.0, "volume": 27, "typical_volume": 1015.55, "trend": 455.102, "fair_value": 495.407628, "relative_strength": 4.543975, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.214195, "energy": 73.283706, "activity_lines": [ 498.803335, 490.615639, 466.956002, 458.187786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 530.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1015.55, "trend": 456.143, "fair_value": 495.912628, "relative_strength": 5.364071, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.799507, "energy": 94.438617, "activity_lines": [ 510.773334, 499.708911, 474.388049, 463.019915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 532.0, "volume": 12, "typical_volume": 1016.15, "trend": 457.250667, "fair_value": 496.295321, "relative_strength": 5.204769, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.637264, "energy": 94.637682, "activity_lines": [ 520.95, 507.311274, 481.534382, 467.913915 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 594.030029, "volume": 411, "typical_volume": 1036.45, "trend": 461.051668, "fair_value": 497.092308, "relative_strength": 17.384497, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 97.414559, "energy": 98.885914, "activity_lines": [ 549.21001, 524.919097, 494.102623, 476.73839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }