{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52f565f6-afc1-4651-9f90-96438b8acdc6", "symbol": "SPSK", "name": "TIDAL ETF TRUST SP FUNDS DOW JONES GLOBAL SUKUK ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.166, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.209, "architecture_energy": 44.298, "architecture_maturity": 2.127, "architecture_confidence": 93.158, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.77, "rotation_up": 12.54, "upward_expansion": 8.69, "deceleration": 39.97, "rotation_down": 58.22, "downward_expansion": 82.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.859847, 17.887513, 17.911697, 17.919659 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.915, "trend_reference": 17.943542, "distance_from_trend": -0.001591, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.096764, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047859, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.111495, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007536, "excess_performance": -0.133161, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001591, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001477, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047859, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014806, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111115, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00735, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007536, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.744997, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1124268, "relative_activity": 0.744405, "balance": 0.744997, "dry_up": 0.732092, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008022, "annualized_volatility": 0.035487, "from_high_reference": -0.020538, "from_low_reference": 0.015283 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.943542, "fair_value_reference": 17.096764, "structural_low": 17.656349, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.001432, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.009511, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.023702, "worst_return": -0.02571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016764, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.009208, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.037642, "worst_return": -0.045846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.003647, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.047476, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.044443, "worst_return": 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"stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.48224, "energy": 12.617307, "activity_lines": [ 17.94175, 17.943889, 17.935278, 17.947191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.86786, "volume": 820319, "typical_volume": 1541609.75, "trend": 17.962358, "fair_value": 17.06025, "relative_strength": -8.684181, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.06694, "energy": 21.607456, "activity_lines": [ 17.912764, 17.930599, 17.929411, 17.940873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.793079, "volume": 1478879, "typical_volume": 1530686.0, "trend": 17.952515, "fair_value": 17.071842, "relative_strength": -8.279245, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.064828, "energy": 42.8343, "activity_lines": [ 17.866863, 17.906041, 17.91794, 17.929952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.825, "volume": 999220, "typical_volume": 1504587.75, "trend": 17.947021, "fair_value": 17.083697, "relative_strength": -8.788022, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.849121, "energy": 49.879315, "activity_lines": [ 17.844267, 17.888081, 17.910463, 17.921725 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.915, "volume": 1124268, "typical_volume": 1510290.8, "trend": 17.943542, "fair_value": 17.096764, "relative_strength": -11.111495, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.208811, "energy": 44.29812, "activity_lines": [ 17.859847, 17.887513, 17.911697, 17.919659 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }