{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52fa1370-dfd9-48df-9d59-1e50f8e9bf86", "symbol": "CIRCHE", "name": "CirChem AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.084, "architecture_energy": 37.007, "architecture_maturity": 47.681, "architecture_confidence": 85.633, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.29, "rotation_up": 25.36, "upward_expansion": 18.79, "deceleration": 50.41, "rotation_down": 35.99, "downward_expansion": 66.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.695333, 0.692036, 0.74547, 0.818449 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.698, "trend_reference": 0.903843, "distance_from_trend": -0.227742, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.217034, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.685165, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.111329, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.325604, "excess_performance": -0.387098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.227742, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068244, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.685165, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095907, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.451113, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051949, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.325604, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.14129, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 344749, "relative_activity": 1.015689, "balance": 0.14129, "dry_up": 0.601225, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.18788, "annualized_volatility": 0.63576, "from_high_reference": -0.709167, "from_low_reference": 0.163333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.903843, "fair_value_reference": 2.217034, "structural_low": 0.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.024155, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.039384, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 1.538226, "worst_return": -0.417949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.143516, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.217633, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 4.184662, "worst_return": -0.46868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.149423, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.293154, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.754717, "worst_return": -0.479339, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038168, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.308511, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.21673, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071611, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135447, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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{ "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.686, "volume": 7901, "typical_volume": 420209.35, "trend": 0.928177, "fair_value": 2.29979, "relative_strength": -52.102821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.654773, "energy": 44.732514, "activity_lines": [ 0.6888, 0.728786, 0.832358, 0.891749 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.674, "volume": 95908, "typical_volume": 378764.0, "trend": 0.924643, "fair_value": 2.283598, "relative_strength": -50.603389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.108808, "energy": 41.200571, "activity_lines": [ 0.681067, 0.708707, 0.808662, 0.87535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.7, "volume": 180236, "typical_volume": 362209.75, "trend": 0.920577, "fair_value": 2.268213, "relative_strength": -46.711101, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.442431, "energy": 34.539615, "activity_lines": [ 0.684, 0.698193, 0.790232, 0.860857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.686, "volume": 174030, "typical_volume": 361911.0, "trend": 0.913843, "fair_value": 2.249983, "relative_strength": -47.246155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.039044, "energy": 31.75983, "activity_lines": [ 0.6856, 0.690551, 0.772468, 0.845723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.702, "volume": 117265, "typical_volume": 342669.0, "trend": 0.90891, "fair_value": 2.233585, "relative_strength": -45.245529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.103592, "energy": 25.438939, "activity_lines": [ 0.692533, 0.691236, 0.7582, 0.832056 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.698, "volume": 344749, "typical_volume": 339423.9, "trend": 0.903843, "fair_value": 2.217034, "relative_strength": -45.111329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.084488, "energy": 37.00666, "activity_lines": [ 0.695333, 0.692036, 0.74547, 0.818449 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }