{ "ticker": { "uuid": "52ffe3e6-9282-423c-a111-7376a99ccafb", "symbol": "688519", "name": "Nanya New Material Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.474, "architecture_energy": 27.205, "architecture_maturity": 79.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.611, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.41, "rotation_up": 24.81, "upward_expansion": 57.94, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 40.71, "downward_expansion": 23.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 264.092662, 296.264907, 272.444451, 238.790996 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 302.549988, "trend_reference": 192.558572, "distance_from_trend": 0.57121, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 63.89347, "distance_from_fair_value": 3.735226, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 118.665656, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 2.750989, "excess_performance": 2.794193, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.57121, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.707743, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 3.735226, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.397631, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 1.186657, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026149, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.750989, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.798012, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43534878, "relative_activity": 1.374192, "balance": 0.798012, "dry_up": 1.36531, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.242691, "annualized_volatility": 1.010348, "from_high_reference": -0.312105, "from_low_reference": 5.991464 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 192.558572, "fair_value_reference": 63.89347, "structural_low": 74.968682, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.057678, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.055888, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.233939, "worst_return": -0.270747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001169, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.164726, "worst_return": -0.174856, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.487094, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.378637, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.613453, "worst_return": -0.223572, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 30874371.9, "trend": 180.605782, "fair_value": 60.883636, "relative_strength": 77.454958, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.261432, "energy": 30.510456, "activity_lines": [ 294.277332, 310.821818, 266.313828, 228.805189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 218.0, "volume": 38541304, "typical_volume": 31439105.65, "trend": 185.164193, "fair_value": 62.113052, "relative_strength": 67.738819, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.034285, "energy": 26.628271, "activity_lines": [ 258.689999, 296.003091, 265.555885, 231.217719 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 302.549988, "volume": 43534878, "typical_volume": 31680340.2, "trend": 192.558572, "fair_value": 63.89347, "relative_strength": 118.665656, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.473824, "energy": 27.204542, "activity_lines": [ 264.092662, 296.264907, 272.444451, 238.790996 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }