{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5305623c-61d3-4f2f-827e-4b61bb4ed4c5",
    "symbol": "GUT",
    "name": "Gabelli Utility Trust",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 56.781,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 38.118,
    "architecture_energy": 21.162,
    "architecture_maturity": 84.558,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.672,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 38.31,
        "rotation_up": 27.81,
        "upward_expansion": 62.62,
        "deceleration": 88.32,
        "rotation_down": 26.99,
        "downward_expansion": 14.95
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        6.373826,
        6.415113,
        6.324715,
        6.214516
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 6.24,
    "trend_reference": 6.082148,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.025953,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 5.025339,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.241707,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.511631,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.081329,
    "excess_performance": -0.044296,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.025953,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039148,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.241707,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.011662,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.055116,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.029807,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.081329,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.275894,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1010821,
      "relative_activity": 0.960986,
      "balance": 1.275894,
      "dry_up": 1.137097,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.039368,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.128775,
      "from_high_reference": -0.110566,
      "from_low_reference": 0.219022
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 6.082148,
      "fair_value_reference": 5.025339,
      "structural_low": 5.615143,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 28,
        "median_return": 0.008526,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007709,
        "regime_survival": 0.714286,
        "best_return": 0.07154,
        "worst_return": -0.119303,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.026006,
        "positive_rate": 0.636364,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.636364,
        "median_excess_return": -0.029317,
        "regime_survival": 0.636364,
        "best_return": 0.109904,
        "worst_return": -0.124802,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.008813,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013879,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.161149,
        "worst_return": -0.071778,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.018509,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.073845,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.266227,
        "worst_return": -0.068438,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "end": "2024-06-28",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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      {
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        "return": -0.029668,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2024-10-25",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 1079166.2,
        "trend": 6.048812,
        "fair_value": 5.00861,
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        "energy": 56.617568,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 6.35,
        "volume": 933981,
        "typical_volume": 1053147.3,
        "trend": 6.068107,
        "fair_value": 5.017454,
        "relative_strength": -0.619898,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.178725,
        "energy": 45.103737,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 6.24,
        "volume": 1010821,
        "typical_volume": 1051858.55,
        "trend": 6.082148,
        "fair_value": 5.025339,
        "relative_strength": -5.511631,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.117567,
        "energy": 21.16235,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}