{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53072deb-de2a-409b-bff0-26a830651d3c", "symbol": "VBNK", "name": "VersaBank", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.551, "architecture_energy": 26.287, "architecture_maturity": 92.514, "architecture_confidence": 87.534, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.94, "rotation_up": 28.6, "upward_expansion": 64.51, "deceleration": 88.27, "rotation_down": 27.68, "downward_expansion": 16.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.615999, 28.229149, 27.166303, 25.79768 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.51, "trend_reference": 24.233773, "distance_from_trend": 0.093928, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.35005, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.527949, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.690334, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.174806, "excess_performance": 0.054384, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093928, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153428, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.527949, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093665, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.116903, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142328, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.174806, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.249069, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169100, "relative_activity": 1.646143, "balance": 0.249069, "dry_up": 1.494281, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078861, "annualized_volatility": 0.500555, "from_high_reference": -0.181383, "from_low_reference": 0.911628 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.233773, "fair_value_reference": 17.35005, "structural_low": 18.200187, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.02211, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.001973, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.232271, "worst_return": -0.219776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.00839, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.027679, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.437455, "worst_return": -0.117488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.052151, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00096, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.341459, "worst_return": -0.295747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 99705.0, "trend": 23.833109, "fair_value": 17.14688, "relative_strength": 22.334036, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.614782, "energy": 67.708352, "activity_lines": [ 29.323155, 28.664478, 26.858904, 25.431451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.049999, "volume": 151900, "typical_volume": 100095.0, "trend": 24.050344, "fair_value": 17.249408, "relative_strength": 18.481238, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.985483, "energy": 47.060466, "activity_lines": [ 28.552311, 28.519995, 27.057509, 25.638993 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.51, "volume": 169100, "typical_volume": 102725.0, "trend": 24.233773, "fair_value": 17.35005, "relative_strength": 11.690334, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.551078, "energy": 26.286914, "activity_lines": [ 27.615999, 28.229149, 27.166303, 25.79768 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }