{ "ticker": { "uuid": "530a84f4-ee60-4883-96e1-bb91978e20b9", "symbol": "BJC", "name": "Berli Jucker Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.412, "architecture_energy": 82.795, "architecture_maturity": 13.657, "architecture_confidence": 61.192, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.07, "rotation_up": 83.3, "upward_expansion": 96.51, "deceleration": 39.05, "rotation_down": 8.53, "downward_expansion": 18.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.633334, 15.209091, 14.802886, 14.65492 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 15.9, "trend_reference": 14.511044, "distance_from_trend": 0.095717, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.107649, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.209256, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.466736, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.087375, "excess_performance": -0.104951, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095717, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00392, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.209256, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132204, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124667, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148063, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087375, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.650556, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43161800, "relative_activity": 1.856965, "balance": 1.650556, "dry_up": 2.043283, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038703, "annualized_volatility": 0.27913, "from_high_reference": -0.226985, "from_low_reference": 0.274267 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.511044, "fair_value_reference": 20.107649, "structural_low": 12.477762, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.026141, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.004091, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.036777, "worst_return": -0.070513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.077451, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.002092, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092199, "worst_return": -0.096143, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.016807, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.078887, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.009628, "worst_return": -0.093516, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -22.49599, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.289803, "energy": 44.128083, "activity_lines": [ 14.606667, 14.44, 14.336821, 14.348082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.8, "volume": 44537000, "typical_volume": 23879675.0, "trend": 14.331543, "fair_value": 20.405168, "relative_strength": -21.862651, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.155628, "energy": 56.016861, "activity_lines": [ 14.713333, 14.523636, 14.386383, 14.379945 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.3, "volume": 44837000, "typical_volume": 22931960.0, "trend": 14.367128, "fair_value": 20.299393, "relative_strength": -18.605067, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.89846, "energy": 70.32617, "activity_lines": [ 14.94, 14.687273, 14.48736, 14.442426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.200001, "volume": 57433900, "typical_volume": 23426595.0, "trend": 14.439212, "fair_value": 20.206667, "relative_strength": -12.137169, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.55702, "energy": 83.419411, "activity_lines": [ 15.4, 14.992727, 14.665254, 14.560676 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.9, "volume": 43161800, "typical_volume": 23243190.0, "trend": 14.511044, "fair_value": 20.107649, "relative_strength": -12.466736, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.412058, "energy": 82.794974, "activity_lines": [ 15.633334, 15.209091, 14.802886, 14.65492 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }