{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "530d661c-6633-4193-8619-1fd66229565f",
    "symbol": "ISP",
    "name": "Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 92.809,
    "architecture_energy": 96.373,
    "architecture_maturity": 31.77,
    "architecture_confidence": 70.557,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 0.87,
        "rotation_up": 88.26,
        "upward_expansion": 99.89,
        "deceleration": 39.03,
        "rotation_down": 9.31,
        "downward_expansion": 21.89
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        6.561467,
        6.370836,
        6.086809,
        5.886912
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 6.833,
    "trend_reference": 5.707817,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.19713,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 3.973681,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.719564,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 0.86215,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.187696,
    "excess_performance": 0.01345,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.19713,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.04224,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.719564,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.167047,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.008622,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.086329,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.187696,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 37.515714,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 750,
      "relative_activity": 0.356896,
      "balance": 37.515714,
      "dry_up": 2.496134,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.031905,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.289059,
      "from_high_reference": -0.003209,
      "from_low_reference": 0.460327
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 5.707817,
      "fair_value_reference": 3.973681,
      "structural_low": 4.67909,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 42,
        "median_return": 0.028906,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.009228,
        "regime_survival": 0.761905,
        "best_return": 0.196382,
        "worst_return": -0.24055,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": 0.07363,
        "positive_rate": 0.733333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.733333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.045167,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
        "best_return": 0.313344,
        "worst_return": -0.274348,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.22994,
        "positive_rate": 0.888889,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.888889,
        "median_excess_return": 0.148052,
        "regime_survival": 0.777778,
        "best_return": 0.328695,
        "worst_return": -0.322776,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.418741,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.295306,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.615903,
        "worst_return": -0.167055,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-11-17",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.415938,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
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        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.072164,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "active": false
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 3.198902,
        "energy": 16.652545,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.425875,
          5.278741,
          5.377966,
          5.40873
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 5.510499,
        "volume": 4339,
        "typical_volume": 1290.05,
        "trend": 5.405118,
        "fair_value": 3.599147,
        "relative_strength": -8.375166,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 12.160022,
        "energy": 24.536804,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.489875,
          5.322491,
          5.381695,
          5.416049
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 5.625542,
        "volume": 235,
        "typical_volume": 1301.8,
        "trend": 5.420668,
        "fair_value": 3.623497,
        "relative_strength": -7.770796,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 20.977966,
        "energy": 26.547881,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.554325,
          5.390006,
          5.39627,
          5.43027
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 5.525,
        "volume": 700,
        "typical_volume": 1328.45,
        "trend": 5.436667,
        "fair_value": 3.647338,
        "relative_strength": -8.938896,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 23.309017,
        "energy": 22.284089,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.546913,
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          5.401803,
          5.437001
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 5.636,
        "volume": 2066,
        "typical_volume": 1431.75,
        "trend": 5.455276,
        "fair_value": 3.672087,
        "relative_strength": -8.888696,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 20.885012,
        "energy": 23.956752,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.573408,
          5.499428,
          5.418686,
          5.449861
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1431.75,
        "trend": 5.476488,
        "fair_value": 3.698197,
        "relative_strength": -8.149399,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 31.764195,
        "energy": 37.005131,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.668706,
          5.582799,
          5.454562,
          5.474037
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 5.67,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1430.0,
        "trend": 5.491775,
        "fair_value": 3.722872,
        "relative_strength": -9.520257,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 20.730028,
        "energy": 36.591378,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.683569,
          5.618807,
          5.474769,
          5.486522
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 5.817,
        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 1435.0,
        "trend": 5.505418,
        "fair_value": 3.748328,
        "relative_strength": -9.588015,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.625508,
        "energy": 60.962428,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.7368,
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          5.509294,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 6.179,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1435.0,
        "trend": 5.536144,
        "fair_value": 3.776093,
        "relative_strength": -7.756344,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.342673,
        "energy": 78.336032,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.897933,
          5.769685,
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          5.550961
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 5.927,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1426.5,
        "trend": 5.553476,
        "fair_value": 3.801963,
        "relative_strength": -9.669447,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.240248,
        "energy": 69.85095,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.931467,
          5.812511,
          5.619039,
          5.576177
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 6.153,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1419.0,
        "trend": 5.576665,
        "fair_value": 3.829616,
        "relative_strength": -8.332629,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.146451,
        "energy": 80.47274,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.020933,
          5.892265,
          5.681599,
          5.614856
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 6.247,
        "volume": 3113,
        "typical_volume": 1550.75,
        "trend": 5.601988,
        "fair_value": 3.857329,
        "relative_strength": -5.673507,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.861022,
        "energy": 86.681781,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.1202,
          5.975846,
          5.750019,
          5.658104
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 6.29,
        "volume": 6772,
        "typical_volume": 1889.35,
        "trend": 5.620399,
        "fair_value": 3.884906,
        "relative_strength": -3.16264,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.824916,
        "energy": 87.834326,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.195333,
          6.053855,
          5.819773,
          5.702492
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 6.418,
        "volume": 1150,
        "typical_volume": 1806.4,
        "trend": 5.644719,
        "fair_value": 3.913022,
        "relative_strength": -2.514132,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.043733,
        "energy": 91.626254,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.2816,
          6.143055,
          5.898576,
          5.75395
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 6.544,
        "volume": 12310,
        "typical_volume": 2313.95,
        "trend": 5.671371,
        "fair_value": 3.942122,
        "relative_strength": -0.536708,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.341851,
        "energy": 92.385797,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.393933,
          6.238927,
          5.982664,
          5.811968
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 6.833,
        "volume": 750,
        "typical_volume": 2101.45,
        "trend": 5.707817,
        "fair_value": 3.973681,
        "relative_strength": 0.86215,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 92.809104,
        "energy": 96.37263,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.561467,
          6.370836,
          6.086809,
          5.886912
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}