{ "ticker": { "uuid": "530fc057-5fed-4289-896b-e27098991898", "symbol": "XCH", "name": "iShares China Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.783, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.472, "architecture_energy": 25.639, "architecture_maturity": 32.342, "architecture_confidence": 38.408, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.11, "rotation_up": 47.5, "upward_expansion": 28.15, "deceleration": 41.14, "rotation_down": 15.56, "downward_expansion": 50.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.595333, 23.006435, 23.01805, 23.206127 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.91, "trend_reference": 23.649029, "distance_from_trend": 0.011035, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.552003, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16339, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.061091, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.059032, "excess_performance": -0.179453, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011035, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040904, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16339, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03502, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140611, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001584, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059032, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.907463, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39300, "relative_activity": 0.701097, "balance": 1.907463, "dry_up": 1.359379, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03373, "annualized_volatility": 0.194318, "from_high_reference": -0.131299, "from_low_reference": 0.137488 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.649029, "fair_value_reference": 20.552003, "structural_low": 21.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023131, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.006194, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.405471, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.054939, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.054994, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.258359, "worst_return": -0.192546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.094797, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.014709, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.443686, "worst_return": -0.243218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007729, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028382, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115878, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.814477, "energy": 54.943319, "activity_lines": [ 22.181652, 22.361502, 22.819396, 23.206006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.15, "volume": 60500, "typical_volume": 64635.0, "trend": 23.774029, "fair_value": 20.463322, "relative_strength": -15.299902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.681242, "energy": 29.879461, "activity_lines": [ 22.546, 22.46524, 22.827153, 23.161744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.27, "volume": 119100, "typical_volume": 61355.0, "trend": 23.718029, "fair_value": 20.506796, "relative_strength": -10.405412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.425624, "energy": 17.560418, "activity_lines": [ 23.230667, 22.778931, 22.94134, 23.193742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.91, "volume": 39300, "typical_volume": 56055.0, "trend": 23.649029, "fair_value": 20.552003, "relative_strength": -14.061091, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.471968, "energy": 25.638968, "activity_lines": [ 23.595333, 23.006435, 23.01805, 23.206127 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }